Seeding and gold medal probability in wrestling: a 2016 Rio Olympic Games analysis

Abstract

The United World Wrestling carried out the implementation of seeding athletes for the first time at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games. For this reason, the aim of the current study was to calculate the probability of winning a medal and becoming an Olympic Champion at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games of seeded wrestlers using the Bayesian theorem. The data were obtained from the results book of the Rio Olympic Games. The obtained data were analyzed Bayesian theorem. According to the results, the probabilities of being an Olympic Champion of first seeded wrestlers were 67.0%, 81.0% and 62.0% for males Greco-Roman, freestyle and female freestyle, respectively. As a result, being a seeded athlete had a great advantage to become an Olympic Champion in the wrestling competitions of the Rio Olympic Games. As the Olympic Games are held every four years, the medals in the Grand Prix tournaments, continental, and World Championships must be scored according to difficulty grade and medal colour, and the Olympic ranking should be established for each weight category. Furthermore, it would provide more competitive, challenging and enjoyable Olympic Games for wrestling and spectators.