Attribution of yield change for rice-wheat rotation system in China to climate change, cultivars and agronomic management in the past three decades

Abstract

Using the detailed field experiment data from 1981 to 2009 at four representative agro-meteorological experiment stations in China, along with the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) rice-wheat model, we evaluated the impact of sowing/transplanting date on phenology and yield of rice-wheat rotation system (RWRS). We also disentangled the contributions of climate change, modern cultivars, sowing/ transplanting density and fertilization management, as well as changes in each climate variables, to yield change in RWRS, in the past three decades. We found that change in sowing/transplanting date did not significantly affect rice and wheat yield in RWRS, although alleviated the negative impact of climate change to some extent. From 1981 to 2009, climate change jointly caused rice and wheat yield change by −17.4 to 1.5 %, of which increase in temperature reduced yield by 0.0-5.8 % and decrease in solar radiation reduced it by 1.5-8.7 %. Cultivars renewal, modern sowing/transplanting density and fertilization management contributed to yield change by 14.4-27.2, −4.7-−0.1 and 2.3-22.2 %, respectively. Our findings highlight that modern cultivars and agronomic management compensated the negative impacts of climate change and played key roles in yield increase in the past three decades.

Attributing regional trends of evapotranspiration and gross primary productivity with remote sensing: a case study in the North China Plain

“…Here we assumed that climate change did not modify the tendencies of vegetation covers, but dominated the inter-annual variation of vegetation density. Renewal of crop cultivars, applications of synthetic fertilizer and irrigation, as well as conservancy tillage and nitrogen deposition all contribute to the crop and/or natural productivity improvements (Yu et al, 2012;Bai et al, 2016;Piao et al, 2015). National statistical records of grain yields on county scale showed a rapid increase from 1980 to 1990 and a moderate increase in the 2000s.…”

“…For example, Piao et al (2015) documented that elevated atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition were the critical contributors to terrestrial greening over China; Baker et al (2010) figured out that climate anomalies in springtime were the most frequent drivers of annual GPP variations in North America; Nayak et al (2013) reported that climate change had a relatively small but significant control (15 %) on the trend of terrestrial net primary production (NPP) over India. In the crop ecosystems, contributions of climate change, cultivar renewal, and agronomic management to change in crop yield have been separated with the crop or statistical models (Yu et al, 2012;Song et al, 2014;Bai et al, 2016;Guo et al, 2014;. The impacts of climate change on crop yield may be positive or negative in different regions, depending on the tendencies of the dominant factors (Ewert et al, 2015).…”

Climate change effect on wheat phenology depends on cultivar change

“…For example, earlier sowing dates prolonged the growing period of maize in northeastern China by 4 to 21 days 6 . New cultivars of rice and wheat with higher thermal requirements and later maturity dates that were introduced in China during 1981–2009 expanded their growth season lengths and compensated for the advancement in crop phenology caused by increased temperatures 7,8 . The length of the growing season for cereals such as wheat increased by approximately 10 days in Finland due to a cultivar change 9 .…”

Managing Water and Soils to Achieve Adaptation and Reduce Methane Emissions and Arsenic Contamination in Asian Rice Production

“…The direct effects include the implications of higher temperatures and changes in ambient carbon dioxide concentrations on the growth, development, and yield of rice plants [20,21]. Additionally in this category are the impacts of changes in rainfall patterns, humidity, solar radiation, and average wind speeds, which influence rice growth and grain yields [22][23][24][25]. The indirect effects include changes in crop water requirements and in water availability, particularly in areas where rice is irrigated.…”