Climate change effect on wheat phenology depends on cultivar change

Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi; Siebert, Stefan; Hüging, Hubert; Ewert, Frank

doi:10.1038/s41598-018-23101-2

Cited by 105 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 36 publications

(47 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector will need to address concurrent water‐stress conditions throughout Europe. Negative effects of the projected increase in extremes might be only partially limited by shorter phenological cycles, new varieties, and fertilization effects of increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration (Challinor et al, ; Kimball, ; Obermeier et al, ; Parkes et al, ; Rezaei, Siebert, Hüging, et al, ; Trnka et al, ). Crops, such as maize, could be more affected by projected increases in severe drought events (Webber et al, ; Zampieri et al, ), and as seen in 2018, the livestock sector will also be negatively impacted due to the lack of fodder crops.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5‐year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy‐based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018‐like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high‐end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro‐economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, it is more likely due to the limitation of models in accurately representing heat stress influence, such as slow updates of key parameters related to heat and drought resistance and lack of explicitly accounting for heat stress effect during the development stages of different maize cultivars. Rezaei, Siebert, Hüging, and Ewert () also found that ignoring cultivar changes in analyses of historic changes in phenology leads to an overestimate of the temperature sensitivity of the phenology of winter wheat in Germany. A similar model parametrization bias may exist in other crops, e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dissecting the nonlinear response of maize yield to high temperature stress with model‐data integration

Zhu

Zhuang

Archontoulis

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Evidence suggests that global maize yield declines with a warming climate, particularly with extreme heat events. However, the degree to which important maize processes such as biomass growth rate, growing season length (GSL) and grain formation are impacted by an increase in temperature is uncertain. Such knowledge is necessary to understand yield responses and develop crop adaptation strategies under warmer climate. Here crop models, satellite observations, survey, and field data were integrated to investigate how high temperature stress influences maize yield in the U.S. Midwest. We showed that both observational evidence and crop model ensemble mean (MEM) suggests the nonlinear sensitivity in yield was driven by the intensified sensitivity of harvest index (HI), but MEM underestimated the warming effects through HI and overstated the effects through GSL. Further analysis showed that the intensified sensitivity in HI mainly results from a greater sensitivity of yield to high temperature stress during the grain filling period, which explained more than half of the yield reduction. When warming effects were decomposed into direct heat stress and indirect water stress (WS), observational data suggest that yield is more reduced by direct heat stress (−4.6 ± 1.0%/°C) than by WS (−1.7 ± 0.65%/°C), whereas MEM gives opposite results. This discrepancy implies that yield reduction by heat stress is underestimated, whereas the yield benefit of increasing atmospheric CO2 might be overestimated in crop models, because elevated CO2 brings yield benefit through water conservation effect but produces limited benefit over heat stress. Our analysis through integrating data and crop models suggests that future adaptation strategies should be targeted at the heat stress during grain formation and changes in agricultural management need to be better accounted for to adequately estimate the effects of heat stress.

show abstract

“…In particular, cultivars that are selected in hot climates are less sensitive to yield losses (Butler & Huybers, ), a feature that is not reflected in the GGCMs. Rezaei et al () suggest that the temperature response in phenology could be flawed by not accounting for changes in cultivar choice in the historic past. Also, Zhu et al () find that GGCMs often overestimate the response in growing period length compared to other yield‐reducing effects of warming.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature up to 6 K, accounting for model uncertainty. We find that without adaptation, the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce grain yields and production. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to combat warming-induced yield reduction: (i) use of cultivars with adjusted phenology to regain the reference growing period duration and (ii) conversion of rainfed systems to irrigated ones in order to alleviate the negative temperature effects that are mediated by crop evapotranspiration. We find that cultivar adaptation can fully compensate global production losses up to 2 K of temperature increase, with larger potentials in continental and temperate regions. Irrigation could also compensate production losses, but its potential is highest in arid regions, where irrigation expansion would be constrained by water scarcity. Moreover, we discuss that irrigation is not a true adaptation measure but rather an intensification strategy, as it equally increases production under any temperature level. In the tropics, even when introducing both adapted cultivars and irrigation, crop production declines already at moderate warming, making adaptation particularly challenging in these areas.

show abstract

Climate change effect on wheat phenology depends on cultivar change

Cited by 105 publications

References 36 publications

The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation

The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation

Dissecting the nonlinear response of maize yield to high temperature stress with model‐data integration

Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About