Assessing the Consequences of the Pandemic for the Russian Economy Through an Input-Output Model

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of anti-coronavirus measures on the dynamics of economic activity. In addition to primary shocks directly caused by restrictive measures, we assess their secondary effects through inter-industry relationships. Our assessments show that secondary effects impact more industries than primary effects do. The overall impact of secondary effects on the economy proves to be of a larger scale than the impact of primary effects with high heterogeneity of dynamics by industry.

Data of Sectoral Financial Flows as a High-Frequency Indicator of Economic Activity

“…The negative consequences of the crisis are certainly not limited to the primary effects experienced by those sectors of the economy directly affected by the restrictive measures imposed in 2020 (primarily the service sector). Through intersectoral links, they spread to other sectors, and these secondary effects are significant in scale and quite long-lasting (see, in particular, Ponomarenko et al, 2020). Thus, in the context of the coronacrisis, even when the most acute phase of the pandemic has passed and the epidemiological situation is gradually returning to normal, the issues related to the long-term implications of the crisis and the peculiarities of the structural adjustment of the economy represent an important area for economic analysis.…”