Part of this study had initially been completed at the Sberbank of Russia, and we are truly grateful to Konstantin Kozlov for helpful contributions to this research project. An early version of this paper was presented at the XII ESCB Emerging Markets Workshop in Saariselka (December 2014) hosted by the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT). We wish to thank the workshop participants and especially Heiner Mikosch for comments and suggestions. We also express particular gratitude to Michele Lenza for encouragement, as well as for providing valuable feedback and criticism. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Bank of Russia. All remaining errors are our responsibility.
Авторы выражают благодарность Е. Дерюгиной и К. Козлову за помощь в проведении исследования. Мнение авторов может не совпадать с официальной позицией Банка России.
In this paper, we analyze a number of monetary and FX policy alternatives using the model of a small open oil-exporting economy hit by severe balance-of-payment shocks, such as those that simultaneously affected the Russian economy in 2014-2015. For our purposes, we modify Romer's (2013) IS-MP general equilibrium model by adding a structure similar to the Russian economy (tradables and oil vs. non-tradables).In the model, we consider an optimal policy mix that includes a floating exchange rate, FX liquidity provision by a central bank and temporary tightening of monetary policy . The flexible exchange rate works as a shock absorber, helping restore aggregate demand and domestic production. If inflation expectations are not anchored, contractionary monetary policy helps to stabilize them. Financial stability risks are addressed by lending FX liquidity to the banking sector.
Petersburg in early July. 2 This review will briefly summarise the discussions with a strong focus on research insights, both the authors' and our own, that are of practical importance to central bank policy.
Оценка эффекта переноса валютного курса рубля в цены производителей конечной продукции на микроданных российских компаний Аннотация. Мы получаем прямые оценки эффекта переноса валютного курса рубля в цены производителей некоторых видов деятельности, используя данные опроса предприятий о доле импорта в их затратах, проведенного Банком России в 2017 г. Так, мы дополняем существующие для России оценки, основанные на агрегированных макроэкономических или отраслевых данных. Калибруя на имеющихся данных об отдельных отраслевых рынках России теоретическую модель из (Amiti, Itskhoki, Konings, 2016), мы уточняем эти прямые оценки «по издержкам». Модель учитывает стимулы компаний, направленные на активное управление своей нормой прибыли (маржой) для сохранения доли рынка после неблагоприятного изменения валютного курса. В результате исследования выяснилось, что, во-первых, оценка эффекта переноса по издержкам в цены предприятий, производящих конечную продукцию, равна 0,18. Во-вторых, судя по опросам, эффект переноса асимметричен: в случае укрепления рубля он вдвое слабее, чем при его ослаблении. В-третьих, в сельском хозяйстве и производстве пищевых продуктов на эффект переноса влияет поведение компаний-они активно следят за ценовыми действиями конкурентов. Эти результаты имеют важные следствия для волатильности цен продовольственных товаров и финансовой устойчивости компаний этих отраслевых рынков. Ключевые слова: эффект переноса валютного курса в цены, инфляция, стратегическое взаимодействие компаний, маржа, доля импорта в издержках, опрос предприятий.
The Bank of Russia's policy for banking sector recovery and elimination of non-viable and unscrupulous banks from it receives experts' attention and their mixed response. Our study, in line with the key points of critique, suggests that this policy can, in the medium term, bring down the level of monopolism in the banking system and improve its efficiency, while weakening medium-sized and small banks' positions in the short term. Overall, long-term benefits from proactive supervision policy may significantly outweigh short-term losses owed to a rise in banking business concentration. To study the implications of proactive banking sector recovery we have constructed an agent-based model of the banking sector and calibrated its key variables using Russia's banking sector data. Based on the model we have compared short-term and longterm effects under two supervision regimes, one more and the other less stringent. Model estimation suggests that short-term effects of proactive supervision policy weaken the positions of medium-sized and small banks, including those complying with supervisory requirements. However, as the banking sector gains in soundness, benefits from heightened confidence in these banks and the entire banking system generally exceed short-term losses. The share of medium-sized and small banks in loans and deposits of the banking system eventually proves to be higher than prior to supervision policy enhancement. The monopolism of the banking sector declines and price competition rises. The banking system becomes a more effective economy financing institution, shedding the excessive risk to individual and systemic stability, with the average risk of financed projects remaining unchanged. Meanwhile, medium-sized and small banks' stability improves. We point out that agent-based models provide a helpful tool for studying a wide range of other issues vital to the Russian banking sector.
This paper evaluates the impact of anti-coronavirus measures on the dynamics of economic activity. In addition to primary shocks directly caused by restrictive measures, we assess their secondary effects through inter-industry relationships. Our assessments show that secondary effects impact more industries than primary effects do. The overall impact of secondary effects on the economy proves to be of a larger scale than the impact of primary effects with high heterogeneity of dynamics by industry.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.