Trends in the Russian economy development during the new anti-Russian sanctions

Abstract

Objective: to identify trends in the development of the Russian economy during the new anti-Russian sanctions. To this end, the paper analyzes the impact of the new sanctions on the budgetary sphere, the development of economic sectors and industries and the Russian regions.Methods: the work uses data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the Federal Treasury, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation (Ministry of Economic Development), the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia), the Federal Tax Service (FTS), the Federal Customs Service (FCS), the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS). For their analysis, graphical, tabular, and analytical methods are used.Results: the new anti-Russian sanctions caused significant changes in the structure of the Russian exports and trade balance. The reduced inflow of foreign currency put significant pressure on the ruble exchange rate, which created inflation risks. The devaluation was restrained by the Bank of Russia new currency regime. The favorable situation in the energy market in 2022 led to an increase in budget revenues. In 2023, economic growth resulted from an active fiscal policy supported by moderate monetary expansion. However, it was achieved at the cost of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt. The response of different industries and regions to the sanctions shock was heterogeneous. The development of certain adaptive strategies by economic entities, as well as the response of the authorities played an important role. The new sanctions regime prompted a revision of the state economy regulation paradigm. Dirigisme manifested itself in the increase of state orders, subsidies and other support for protected industries with one-time withdrawals of opportunistic revenues of big business. Monetary and fiscal policy gradually acquired a hybrid character. Direct and indirect price regulation became an important instrument of state regulation during the sanctions.Scientific novelty: it consists in a comprehensive analysis of development trends during the new anti-Russian sanctions, their impact on foreign economic parameters, budgetary sphere, financial system, development of Russian industries and regions.Practical significance: statistical information on various aspects of the Russian economy development during the new antiRussian sanctions was summarized and analyzed. The work can be useful to researchers studying the functioning of the Russian economy under sanctions, as well as to businesspersons for assessing the risks, opportunities and prospects of their businesses development, and to government agencies for forming an effective anti-crisis policy.