Assessing exposure to extreme climatic events for terrestrial mammals

Ameca, Eric I.; Mace, Georgina M.; Cowlishaw, Guy; Cornforth, William A.; Pettorelli, Nathalie

doi:10.1111/j.1755-263x.2012.00306.x

Cited by 48 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 45 publications

(86 reference statements)

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“…Of the three components of vulnerability, our ability to measure exposure to extreme events is arguably the most advanced. For example, over 30% of threatened terrestrial mammals have experienced significant exposure to cyclones, droughts or a combination of both (Ameca y Juárez, Mace, Cowlishaw, Cornforth, & Pettorelli, ). Measurements of exposure should not, however, rely solely on historical patterns of extreme events.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events

Maxwell

Butt

Maron

et al. 2018

Diversity and Distributions

201

162

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Aim Many conservation efforts now focus on mitigating biodiversity loss due to climate change. While a focus on impacts from mean, long‐term changes in climate is warranted, the vast majority of conservation plans largely ignore another key factor of climate change—changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events. A typology of the full range and severity of ecological responses to extreme events would help underpin tracking of their impacts. Location Global. Methods Here, we review 519 observational studies of ecological responses to extreme events between 1941 and 2015. We include responses from amphibians, birds, fish, invertebrates, mammals, plants and reptiles to cyclones, drought, flood, cold waves and heat waves. Results Negative ecological responses were the most commonly reported, accounting for 57% of all documented responses. There were over 100 cases of a >25% population decline and 31 cases of local extirpation. Sixty per cent of the studies in our review observed ecological responses for more than 1 year, and of the studies that monitored species or ecosystem recovery following exposure to an extreme event, 38% showed species or ecosystems did not recover to pre‐disturbance levels. Main conclusions Extreme weather and climate events have profound implications for species and ecosystem management. We discuss current conceptual challenges associated with incorporating extreme events into conservation planning efforts, which include how to quantify species sensitivity and adaptive capacity to extreme events, how to account for interactions between extreme events and other stressors, and how to maximize adaptive capacity to more frequent and intense extreme events.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events

Maxwell

Butt

Maron

et al. 2018

Diversity and Distributions

201

162

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. The ability to identify populations at higher risk is paramount to implement proactive on-the-ground conservation actions, aiming to increase population resilience against negative effects of climate change [23,40]. …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

et al. 2016

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Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.

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“…) at a time when species already face habitat conversion, degradation and exploitation. This exacerbation of natural disturbance regimes will likely worsen many types of resource bottlenecks (Ameca y Juárez et al ., ) and result in nonlinear effects on biota. Species may be adapted to resource scarcity to a certain extent, or for a given duration, but beyond that point, population recovery may be impossible (Fig.…”

Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Some habitats, such as grasslands, return quickly to pre‐disturbance conditions following such disturbances, but others, such as forests and savannas, recover more slowly (Sutherland & Dickman, ; Jones & Schmitz, ; Allen et al ., ; Haslem et al ., ; Williams et al ., ). At the broad scale, a recent review of the overlap between the distribution of terrestrial mammals and land areas exposed to drought and cyclones identified high proportions of mammals exposed to climate extremes across West Africa and Madagascar (Ameca y Juárez et al ., ). While species that occupy habitat prone to already‐high frequencies of these disturbances are generally well adapted to them, increases in the frequency or intensity of such disturbance may nonetheless take these species past tolerance thresholds (Fig.…”

Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐induced resource bottlenecks exacerbate species vulnerability: a review

Maron

McAlpine

Watson

et al. 2015

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim Resource bottlenecks -periods of severe restriction in resource availability -triggered by increased climate variability represent important and littleunderstood mechanisms through which climate change will affect biodiversity. In this review, we aim to synthesize the key global change processes that exacerbate the severity of bottlenecks in resource availability on animal populations, and outline how adaptation responses can help buffer the impacts.Location Global.Methods We collate examples from the literature of population-level impacts of resource bottlenecks induced by extreme weather and climate events to explore the types of population impacts that have most frequently been recorded, and the type of extreme events associated with them. We then develop a conceptual framework that captures the factors contributing to species' vulnerability to climate-induced spatial and temporal resource bottlenecks in increasingly variable environments.Results Increases in the frequency, severity and/or duration of extreme weather and climate events can trigger resource bottlenecks that act as powerful demographic constraints on terrestrial fauna, and often exacerbate other humaninduced pressures such as land use change. Such phenomena are likely to become more frequent and severe, with potentially nonlinear increases in impact. Forty-nine instances of population-level impacts from climate-induced resource bottlenecks were recorded from the literature, including four extinctions and ten population crashes. Anthropogenic land use change interacts with increasing climatic variability to exacerbate these resource 'crunches', but can sometimes act as a buffer for species.Main Conclusions Resource bottlenecks are likely to be a large class of climate-sensitive stressors whose impacts may play out at the population scale, even well within a species' apparent climatic envelope. More effective conservation responses to climate-related threats include explicit actions, such as managing protected area networks for spatial and temporal resource complementarities, that buffer vulnerable species against bottlenecks.

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Assessing exposure to extreme climatic events for terrestrial mammals

Cited by 48 publications

References 45 publications

Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events

Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

Climate‐induced resource bottlenecks exacerbate species vulnerability: a review

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