Climate change models forecast an increase in temperature and disruption of rainfall patterns across the globe (IPCC, 2014a). Such changes will redistribute biodiversity as we know it, with consequences for ecosystems worldwide (Pecl et al., 2017). Variation in the composition of communities is one of the first observed shifts (Dornelas et al., 2019), where some species are locally lost or replaced by newcomers (Urban, 2015). A particularly well-documented example is humid forest retreat at the expense of a drier and open-canopy vegetation in the Amazon (Marimon et al., 2014; Nobre, 2014). The warmer and drier climates observed in the Southeastern Amazon have favored plant lineages that are warm-adapted (Feeley et al., 2020) and dry-affiliated (Esquivel-Muelbert et al., 2019). These changes are expected to promote large-scale compositional shifts, with the gradual replacement of moist forests by seasonal forests and grasslands (Hirota et al., 2010; Lyra et al., 2016). By the end of the 21st century, climate change alone could lead to a reduction of 10%-50% in total humid tropical forest in the eastern Amazon (Lyra et al., 2016).

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Climate change will redistribute the global biodiversity in the Anthropocene. As climates change, species might move from one place to another, due to local extinctions and colonization of new environments. However, the existence of permeable migratory routes precedes faunal migrations in fragmented landscapes. Here, we investigate how dispersal will affect the outcome of climate change on the distribution of Amazon's primate species. We modeled the distribution of 80 Amazon primate species, using ecological niche models, and projected their potential distribution on scenarios of climate change. Then, we imposed landscape restrictions to primate dispersal, derived from a natural biogeographical barrier to primates (the main tributaries of the Amazon river) and an anthropogenic constraint to the migration of many canopy‐dependent animals (deforested areas). We also highlighted potential conflict zones, i.e. regions of high migration potential but predicted to be deforested. Species response to climate change varied across dispersal limitation scenarios. If species could occupy all newly suitable climate, almost 70% of species could expand ranges. Including dispersal barriers (natural and anthropogenic), however, led to range expansion in only less than 20% of the studied species. When species were not allowed to migrate, all of them lost an average of 90% of the suitable area, suggesting that climate may become unsuitable within their present distributions. All Amazon primate species may need to move as climate changes to avoid deleterious effects of exposure to non‐analog climates. The effect of climate change on the distribution of Amazon primates will ultimately depend on whether landscape permeability will allow climate‐driven faunal migrations. The network of protected areas in the Amazon could work as ‘stepping stones’ but most are outside important migratory routes. Therefore, protecting important dispersal corridors is foremost to allow effective migrations of the Amazon fauna in face of climate change and deforestation.

Niche conservatism, i.e. the retention of a species' fundamental niche through evolutionary time, is cornerstone for biological invasion assessments. The fact that species tend to maintain their original climate niche allows predictive maps of invasion risk to anticipate potential invadable areas. Unravelling the mechanisms driving niche shifts can shed light on the management of invasive species. Here, we assessed niche shifts in one of the world's worst invasive species: the wild boar Sus scrofa. We also predicted potential invadable areas based on an ensemble of three ecological niche modelling methods, and evaluated the performance of models calibrated with native vs. pooled (native plus invaded) species records. By disentangling the drivers of change on the exotic wild boar population's niches, we found strong evidence for niche conservatism during biological invasion. Ecological niche models calibrated with both native and pooled range records predicted convergent areas. Also, observed niche shifts are mostly explained by niche unfilling, i.e. there are unoccupied areas in the exotic range where climate is analogous to the native range. Niche unfilling is expected as result of recent colonization and ongoing dispersal, and was potentially stronger for the Neotropics, where a recent wave of introductions for pig-farming and game-hunting has led to high wild boar population growth rates. The invasive potential of wild boar in the Neotropics is probably higher than in other regions, which has profound management implications if we are to prevent their invasion into species-rich areas, such as Amazonia, coupled with expansion of African swine fever and possibly great economic losses. Although the originally Eurasian-wide distribution suggests a pre-adaptation to a wide array of climates, the wild boar world-wide invasion does not exhibit evidence of niche evolution. The invasive potential of the wild boar therefore probably lies on the reproductive, dietary and morphological characteristics of this species, coupled with behavioural thermoregulation.

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.

Aim Global changes will redistribute biodiversity, reshaping ecological interactions and ecosystem processes. The decoupling in the distribution of plants and their mutualistic seed dispersers, for instance, may have overlooked eco‐evolutionary effects. How animal‐dispersed plants will respond to changes in the distribution of their seed dispersers remains largely an open question. Here, we forecast the consequences of climate change and frugivory interactions for the spatial distribution and seed size evolution of a Neotropical palm species. Location Atlantic forests of South America. Time period Present day, end of 21st century. Major taxa studied Thirty‐two species of frugivorous birds, and a palm (Euterpe edulis). Methods Future patterns of animal–plant co‐occurrence were derived from ecological niche models, climate forecasts, projections of future forest loss, and seed dispersal simulations. We further explored the evolutionary effect of the spatial reorganization of interactions by modelling palm seed sizes as a function of changes in the distribution of frugivore traits. Results Our models indicate that future climate change and deforestation may reduce the palm’s suitable distribution by 20%–50%. However, our simulations suggest that 66% of all remaining future suitable distribution (76,200 km2) would still be inaccessible to the palm without the active dispersal of seeds by frugivores. In addition, novel frugivore communities are projected to have smaller mean body mass and gape size (−23% and −10%, respectively), due to the loss of large frugivores, which may translate into a 6%–17% reduction of seed sizes across the palm’s remaining distribution. Main conclusions Our projections indicate that frugivore seed dispersal may be critical to allow occupancy of future habitat by animal‐dispersed plants. However, loss of large frugivores may affect trait selection regimes, creating hotspots of plant evolution towards smaller seeds. We argue that such complex dynamics emerging from species‐specific responses to global change may reshape the distribution and evolution of several interacting partners worldwide.

Primates play an important role in ecosystem functioning and offer critical insights into human evolution, biology, behavior, and emerging infectious diseases. There are 26 primate species in the Atlantic Forests of South America, 19 of them endemic. We compiled a dataset of 5,472 georeferenced locations of 26 native and 1 introduced primate species, as hybrids in the genera Callithrix and Alouatta. The dataset includes 700 primate communities, 8,121 single species occurrences and 714 estimates of primate population sizes, covering most natural forest types of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Forest of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina and some other biomes. On average, primate communities of the Atlantic Forest harbor 2 ± 1 species (range = 1–6). However, about 40% of primate communities contain only one species. Alouatta guariba (N = 2,188 records) and Sapajus nigritus (N = 1,127) were the species with the most records. Callicebus barbarabrownae (N = 35), Leontopithecus caissara (N = 38), and Sapajus libidinosus (N = 41) were the species with the least records. Recorded primate densities varied from 0.004 individuals/km2 (Alouatta guariba at Fragmento do Bugre, Paraná, Brazil) to 400 individuals/km2 (Alouatta caraya in Santiago, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil). Our dataset reflects disparity between the numerous primate census conducted in the Atlantic Forest, in contrast to the scarcity of estimates of population sizes and densities. With these data, researchers can develop different macroecological and regional level studies, focusing on communities, populations, species co‐occurrence and distribution patterns. Moreover, the data can also be used to assess the consequences of fragmentation, defaunation, and disease outbreaks on different ecological processes, such as trophic cascades, species invasion or extinction, and community dynamics. There are no copyright restrictions. Please cite this Data Paper when the data are used in publications. We also request that researchers and teachers inform us of how they are using the data.

In striking contrast to heartening events in the adjacent Amazon, Brazil's Cerrado biome has seen continued deforestation over the past decade. Though approved in 2012, no study evaluated the impacts of new Brazilian Forest Code (FC) revision on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we report the first assessment of the likely loss and gain in biodiversity and ecosystem services expected if the FC is properly enforced across 200 million hectares of the Cerrado. We also discuss the challenges associated to compliance with the law and present opportunities for conservation.Establishing restoration programmes in private properties with currently less native vegetation than required by the FC could create habitat for 25% more threatened species than now found in these places and could also increase water security and carbon stock in 56.6 MtC. More important, trading environmental reserve quotas coupled with the strategic expansion of protected areas on private and public land could definitely rescue the Cerrado from the brink. K E Y W O R D Scarbon stock, deforestation, environmental policy, nature's contribution to people, restoration, water provision