Ancient and early modern mortality: experience and understanding¹

Abstract

This article discusses the various problems associated with the derivation of mortality measures for ancient Greece and Rome. It outlines two new sets of high mortality model life tables that describe the experiences of such populations more effectively than existing models. The issue of 'demographic borrowing' is also considered, particularly the use of early modern Europe and East Asia as sources for analogies, together with the ways in which the mortality component of historical demographic regimes has been represented and interpreted.

Modelling the Dynamics of Demography in the Dutch Roman Limes Zone

“…According to the Pre-industrial Standard model life table (Séguy & Buchet, 2013) the proportion of males that die between 20 and 45 years of age will be 0.27. In contrast, this proportion would be 0.51 according to the pessimistic South High Mortality with e0=25 table (Woods, 2007;Hin, 2013). On an estimated total of 5,500 soldiers, 1,485-2,785 additional men would then need to be replaced over a period of 25 years, or 59-111 per year, bringing the annual replacement rate to 279-331.…”

“…The model life tables that are thought to most closely resemble the Roman situation are the Model West Level 3 Female and Model South Level 3 Female tables (Coale & Demeny, 1966) both with e0 = 25 years and 25-30% infant mortality. Woods (2007) warns that these should not be thought of as very realistic approximations since they are extrapolated from populations with life expectancies of over 35 years. The infant mortality rate for real populations with a life expectancy of 25 years could therefore be somewhat lower than the Coale & Demeny tables suggest (implying, of course, higher adult mortality rates; see also Hin, 2013;Scheidel, 2001).…”

“…Results are collected after a 100 year stabilisation period. Three different model life tables were tested: Model West Level 3 Female (Coale & Demeny, 1966;Hin, 2013) South High Mortality with e0=25 (Woods, 2007;Hin, 2013) and Preindustrial Standard (Séguy & Buchet, 2013). For fertility, the five-year averages of reproduction suggested by Coale & Trussell (1978) were followed.…”

Modelling Agricultural Strategies in the Dutch Roman Limes via Agent-Based Modelling (ROMFARMS)

“…Further research could analyse the effect of recruitment of the local population into the Roman army which could have had a significant impact on the availability of labour and the marriage pool (see Van Dinter et al 2014;Verhagen et al 2016a). The use of life tables and fertility estimates provide usable approximations of mortality and birth rates in the past but should be treated with caution (Woods 2007).…”

From coral reefs to whale teeth: estimating mortality from natural accumulations of skeletal materials

“…In studies of pre-historical population dynamics, the human age might be estimated the same way as in other mammals. However, demographical records through the last 2 to 3 thousand years of human history provide abundant data on individual AD as recorded on such reliable AReS as tombstones coming from ancient civilisations, for example the 43 000 inscriptions that have survived from the Western Roman Empire alone (Holleran & Pudsey 2011, Woods 2007. In many cases (like Christian funerary commemorations of 4 to 5 th centuries), an epitaph contains the exact date of death, which permits the description of seasonal dynamics of mortality, which in the case of the city of Rome, peaked in late summer to early autumn (Scheidel 2015).…”