Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways

Pilpola, Sannamari; Lund, Peter

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.117652

Cited by 33 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 54 publications

(82 reference statements)

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“…In connection with a previous study on Finland, where low-carbon energy system pathways were analysed using the Monte Carlo method, the biggest uncertainties are related to future energy consumption, followed by the amount of wind power and the availability of biomass [34]. The same uncertainties were also observed in the students' responses.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 60%

The Role of Bioenergy in Achieving the Carbon Neutrality Target in Finland by 2035—A Case Study of Student Surveyed at University in Finland

Ranta¹,

Laihanen²,

Karhunen³

2021

JSBS

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The largest share of renewable energy in Finland comes from bioenergy. In 2019, bioenergy accounted for 82% (416 PJ, 116 TWh) of renewable energy in Finland. This study assesses the potential for increasing bioenergy in energy production by 2035 and what role it will play in achieving the carbon neutrality target in Finland. The role of different energy sources in the energy system was examined using existing scenarios developed for The National Long-Term Strategy. Two alternative low-emission scenarios have been developed to last until 2050 to meet the 2035 carbon neutrality target. In 2035, the amount of bioenergy has risen to 520 -550 PJ (144 -153 TWh), which is about 70% of renewable energy consumption. This means, that the bioenergy resource has been fully deployed and the relative share of bioenergy in renewables has decreased slightly. The study also included a survey to university students to map out how likely a carbon neutrality target is to be considered by 2035. University students were unsure of achieving the carbon neutrality target by 2035. The schedule was considered challenging especially in the transport sector. Bioenergy was also seen as still playing an important role, especially in heat production. Achieving significant emission reductions will require significant electrification in all energy use sectors, as fossil fuels cannot be sustainably replaced by bioenergy on a sufficiently large scale.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 60%

The Role of Bioenergy in Achieving the Carbon Neutrality Target in Finland by 2035—A Case Study of Student Surveyed at University in Finland

Ranta¹,

Laihanen²,

Karhunen³

2021

JSBS

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“…But independent uniform distributions are the most prevalent assumption. 3 , 12 , 36 , 37 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 This approach is backed by the maximum entropy approach, 3 which states that given the persistent lack of knowledge about the distribution the independent uniform distribution, that makes fewest assumptions, is most appropriate. Although the assumed independence may neglect synergies between technologies, for example, between offshore and onshore wind turbine development, we follow the literature by assuming that the cost are independent and uniformly distributed within the ranges specified in Table 1 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Broad ranges of investment configurations for renewable power systems, robust to cost uncertainty and near-optimality

Neumann¹,

Brown²

2023

iScience

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“…Distributions of cost projections have been assumed to follow normal [16] or triangular distributions [32]. But independent uniform distributions are the most prevalent assumption [3,12,30,31,[33][34][35][36].…”

Section: Technology Cost Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Broad Ranges of Investment Configurations for Renewable Power Systems, Robust to Cost Uncertainty and Near-Optimality

Neumann¹,

Brown²

2021

Preprint

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To achieve ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in time, the planning of future energy systems needs to accommodate societal preferences, e.g. low levels of acceptance for transmission expansion or onshore wind turbines, and must also acknowledge the inherent uncertainties of technology cost projections. To date, however, many capacity expansion models lean heavily towards only minimising system cost and only studying few cost projections. Here, we address both criticisms in unison. While taking account of technology cost uncertainties, we apply methods from multiobjective optimisation to explore trade-o s in a fully renewable European electricity system between increasing system cost and extremising the use of individual technologies for generating, storing and transmi ing electricity to build robust insights about what actions are viable within given cost ranges. We identify boundary conditions that must be met for cost-e ciency regardless of how cost developments will unfold; for instance, that some grid reinforcement and long-term storage alongside a significant amount of wind capacity appear essential. But, foremost, we reveal that near the cost-optimum a broad spectrum of regionally and technologically diverse options exists in any case, which allows policymakers to navigate around public acceptance issues. e analysis requires to manage many computationally demanding scenario runs e ciently, for which we leverage multi-delity surrogate modelling techniques using sparse polynomial chaos expansions and low-discrepancy sampling.

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Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways

Cited by 33 publications

References 54 publications

The Role of Bioenergy in Achieving the Carbon Neutrality Target in Finland by 2035—A Case Study of Student Surveyed at University in Finland

The Role of Bioenergy in Achieving the Carbon Neutrality Target in Finland by 2035—A Case Study of Student Surveyed at University in Finland

Broad ranges of investment configurations for renewable power systems, robust to cost uncertainty and near-optimality

Broad Ranges of Investment Configurations for Renewable Power Systems, Robust to Cost Uncertainty and Near-Optimality

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