Broad ranges of investment configurations for renewable power systems, robust to cost uncertainty and near-optimality

Neumann, Fabian; Brown, Tom

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2023.106702

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(83 reference statements)

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“…Therefore, only one optimal solution is generated by GridPath. Modeling to generate alternatives is an emerging approach to assess uncertainties in capacity expansion modeling and many algorithms have been developed to explore potential near-optimal solutions [50][51][52][53][54][55]. However, most of these studies focused on energy systems in the United States or Europe.…”

Section: Exploring Uncertainty Through Alternative Low-cost Solutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerating China’s power sector decarbonization can save lives: integrating public health goals into power sector planning decisions

Luo,

Garcia-Menendez,

Lin

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter in 2022, aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The power sector will play a major role in this decarbonization process due to its current reliance on coal. Prior studies have quantified air quality co-benefits from decarbonization or investigated pathways to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector. However, few have jointly assessed the potential impacts of accelerating decarbonization on electric power systems and public health. Additionally, most analyses have treated air quality improvements as co-benefits of decarbonization, rather than a target during decarbonization. Here, we explore future energy technology pathways in China under accelerated decarbonization scenarios with a power system planning model that integrates carbon, pollutant, and health impacts. We integrate the health effects of power plant emissions into the power system decision-making process, quantifying the public health impacts of decarbonization under each scenario. We find that compared with a reference decarbonization pathway, a stricter cap (20% lower emissions than the reference pathway in each period) on carbon emissions would yield significant co-benefits to public health, leading to a 22% reduction in power sector health impacts. Although extra capital investment is required to achieve this low emission target, the value of climate and health benefits would exceed the additional costs, leading to $824 billion net benefits from 2021 to 2050. Another accelerated decarbonization pathway that achieves zero emissions five years earlier than the reference case would result in lower net benefits due to higher capital costs during earlier decarbonization periods. Treating air pollution impacts as a target in decarbonization can further mitigate both CO2 emissions and negative health effects. Alternative low-cost solutions also show that small variations in system costs can result in significantly different future energy portfolios, suggesting that diverse decarbonization pathways are viable.

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Section: Exploring Uncertainty Through Alternative Low-cost Solutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerating China’s power sector decarbonization can save lives: integrating public health goals into power sector planning decisions

Luo,

Garcia-Menendez,

Lin

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Previous studies have explored the potential impact of technology cost uncertainties in modeling decarbonized energy systems. 40 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 For example, Neumann and Brown (2023) considered cost uncertainties on renewable technologies and identified ranges of cost-efficient capacity expansion plans for European electricity systems; Pilpola and Lund (2019) 40 applied a Monte Carlo approach on Finnish energy systems and emphasized the importance of addressing input uncertainties in future low-carbon-emission energy system planning. Most of these studies, however, embedded the cost uncertainty within a wide range of sources of uncertainty, such as the level of electricity consumption and renewable resource availability, and they focused primarily on system-level behaviors including the annual system cost, CO 2 emissions, and total power supplied.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of uncertainty in technology cost projections for least-cost decarbonized electricity systems

Duan,

Caldeira

2024

iScience

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“…Dynamic indexes [19,22,23] Dynamic indexes refer to the indexes that uniformly convert the cash flow formed using investment projects according to the time value of money.…”

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confidence: 99%

Optimal Configuration of Wind-PV and Energy Storage in Large Clean Energy Bases

Liu,

Zhang,

Wang

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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The installed capacity of energy storage in China has increased dramatically due to the national power system reform and the integration of large scale renewable energy with other sources. To support the construction of large-scale energy bases and optimizes the performance of thermal power plants, the research on the corporation mode between energy storage and thermal energy, including the optimization of energy-storage capacity and its operation in large-scale clean energy bases. In this paper, a large-scale clean energy base system is modeled with EBSILON and a capacity calculation method is established by minimizing the investment cost and energy storage capacity of the power system and constraints such as power balance, SOC, and power fluctuations. The research proposed a method of using coupled system of thermal energy storage systems primarily based on molten salt thermal storage and thermal power generation for rough modulation and using battery energy storage system for fine modulation tasks. Example of fine modulation includes frequency modulation and heating demand of the district, which significantly reduces the energy storage investment by more than 95%. A case study of a 10 MW clean energy base is conducted. The result shows that the overall pre-tax internal rate of return of the base project is 8%, which has good economic benefits.

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Broad ranges of investment configurations for renewable power systems, robust to cost uncertainty and near-optimality

Cited by 10 publications

References 43 publications

Accelerating China’s power sector decarbonization can save lives: integrating public health goals into power sector planning decisions

Accelerating China’s power sector decarbonization can save lives: integrating public health goals into power sector planning decisions

Implications of uncertainty in technology cost projections for least-cost decarbonized electricity systems

Optimal Configuration of Wind-PV and Energy Storage in Large Clean Energy Bases

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