Analysis of Characteristics of Hydrological and Meteorological Drought Evolution in Southwest China

Tang, Han; Wen, Tao; Shi, Peng; Qu, Simin; Zhao, Lanlan; Li, Qiongfang

doi:10.3390/w13131846

Cited by 23 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 53 publications

(53 reference statements)

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“…Changes in drought risk and aridity in regions are among the primary effects anticipated under a warming environment [3]. According to the statistics, the losses caused by meteorological disasters account for about 85% and by drought for about 50% of meteorological disasters among total losses caused by various natural disasters [4]. On a global scale, 22% of the economic losses caused by natural disasters and 33% of the damage in terms of the number of persons affected can be associated with drought [5].…”

Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Yang

Bing

2022

Atmosphere

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Drought is one of the major environmental stressors; drought is increasingly threatening the living environment of mankind. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) with a 12-month timescale was adopted to monitor dry–wet status over China from 1951 to 2021. The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Pettitt tests were used to assess the temporal trend and nonlinear behavior of annual drought variability. The analysis focuses on the spatio-temporal structure of the dry–wet transition and its general connections with climate change processes. In addition, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was applied to forecast the dry–wet behavior in the next year (2022) at 160 stations, and the hotspot areas for extreme dryness–wetness in China were identified in the near term. The results indicate that the dry–wet climate in China overall exhibits interannual variability characterized by intensified drought. The climate in the Northeast China (NEC), North China (NC), Northwest China (NWC), and Southwest China (SWC) has experienced a significant (p < 0.05) drying trend; however, the dry–wet changes in the East China (EC) and South Central China (SCC) are highly spatially heterogeneous. The significant uptrend in precipitation is mainly concentrated to the west of 100° E; the rising magnitude of precipitation is higher in Eastern China near 30° N, with a changing rate of 20–40 mm/decade. Each of the sub-regions has experienced significant (p < 0.01) warming over the past 71 years. Geographically, the increase in temperature north of 30° N is noticeably higher than that south of 30° N, with trend magnitudes of 0.30–0.50 °C/decade and 0.15–0.30 °C/decade, respectively. The response of the northern part of Eastern China to the warming trend had already emerged as early as the 1980s; these responses were earlier and more intense than those south of 40° N latitude (1990s). The drying trends are statistically significant in the northern and southern regions, bounded by 30° N, with trend magnitudes of −0.30–−0.20/decade and −0.20–−0.10/decade, respectively. The northern and southwestern parts of China have experienced a significant (p < 0.05) increase in the drought level since the 1950s, which is closely related to significant warming in recent decades. This study reveals the consistency of the spatial distribution of variations in precipitation and the SPEI along 30° N latitude. A weak uptrend in the SPEI, i.e., an increase in wetness, is shown in Eastern China surrounding 30° N, with a changing rate of 0.003–0.10/decade; this is closely associated with increasing precipitation in the area. Drought forecasting indicates that recent drying areas are located in NWC, the western part of NC, the western part of SWC, and the southern part of SCC. The climate is expected to show wetting characteristics in NEC, the southeastern part of NC, and the eastern part of EC. The dry–wet conditions spanning the area between 30–40° N and 100–110° E exhibit a greater spatial variability. The region between 20–50° N and 80–105° E will continue to face intense challenges from drought in the near future. This study provides compelling evidence for the temporal variability of meteorological drought in different sub-regions of China. The findings may contribute to understanding the spatio-temporal effect of historical climate change on dry–wet variation in the region since the 1950s, particularly in the context of global warming.

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Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Yang

Bing

2022

Atmosphere

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“…Chongqing is an economic center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, an important junction between the Belt and Road and an inland opening highland [36]. Located in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Chongqing in Southwest China has a complex and diverse geological structure, including basins, hills, and other topographical features [37].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of the Performance of Different Interpolation Methods in Replicating Rainfall Magnitudes under Different Climatic Conditions in Chongqing Province (China)

Yang

Bing

2021

Atmosphere

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Precipitation is considered a crucial component in the hydrological cycle and changes in its spatial pattern directly influence the water resources. We compare different interpolation techniques in predicting the spatial distribution pattern of precipitation in Chongqing. Six interpolation methods, i.e., Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Radial Basis Function (RBF), Diffusion Interpolation with Barrier (DIB), Kernel Interpolation with Barrier (KIB), Ordinary Kriging (OK) and Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK), were applied to estimate different rainfall patterns. Annual mean, rainy season and dry-season precipitation was calculated from the daily precipitation time series of 34 meteorological stations with a time span of 1991 to 2019, based on Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOOCV), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) as validation indexes of the applied models for calculating the error degree and accuracy. Correlation test and Spearman coefficient was performed on the estimated and observed values. A method combining Entropy Weight and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Entropy-Weighted TOPSIS) was introduced to rank the performance of six interpolation methods. The results indicate that interpolation technique performs better in estimating during periods of low precipitation (i.e., dry season, relative to rainy season and mean annual). The performance priorities of the six methods under the combined multiple precipitation distribution patterns are KIB > EBK > OK > RBF > DIB > IDW. Among them, KIB method has the highest accuracy which maps more accurate precipitation surfaces, with the disadvantage that estimation error is prone to outliers. EBK method is the second highest, and IDW method has the lowest accuracy with a high degree of error. This paper provides information for the application of interpolation methods in estimating rainfall spatial pattern and for water resource management of concerned regions.

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“…Zuo et al [19] discussed the feasibility of using short-term precipitation series in China to calculate SPI, based on data from 2416 precipitation observation stations during the period 1961−2019. Tang et al [20] used SPEI and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), which was developed on the basis of SPI, to analyze the evolution of hydrological and meteorological droughts in southwest China during the period 1968−2018. However, SPI calculation only considers the precipitation impact on drought, disregarding changes caused by the temperature rise.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Study of Drought in Future Climate Scenarios in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region

Jiang

Zhao

et al. 2021

Water

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In the context of global warming, agricultural production and social and economic development are significantly affected by drought. The future change of climate conditions is uncertain; thus, it is of great importance to clarify the aspects of drought in order to define local and regional drought adaptation strategies. In this study, the meteorological data from 1976 to 2005 was used as a historical reference, and nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), downscaling to meteorological stations from 2039 to 2089, were used as future climate data. Based on Penman–Monteith, the reference crop Evapotranspiration (ET0) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of the reference crop in three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, under future climate conditions, were calculated. A non-parameter Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on temperature, precipitation, ET0, and SPEI to analyze the drought spatiotemporal distribution traits under upcoming climate scenarios. The results showed that, under future climate conditions, SPEI values in most areas of the Huang-Huai-Hai region would continuously increase year by year, and drought would be alleviated to some extent at the same pace. However, with the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the emission scenarios, SPEI values continued to decline. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of severe drought was large. To sum up, in the future climate scenario, the degree of drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region will be alleviated to some extent with the increase of rainfall, but with the increase of greenhouse gas concentration, the degree of drought will be further intensified, posing a huge challenge to agricultural water use in the region. This study provides a theoretical foundation for alleviating drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region in future climate scenarios.

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Analysis of Characteristics of Hydrological and Meteorological Drought Evolution in Southwest China

Cited by 23 publications

References 53 publications

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

A Comparison of the Performance of Different Interpolation Methods in Replicating Rainfall Magnitudes under Different Climatic Conditions in Chongqing Province (China)

The Study of Drought in Future Climate Scenarios in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region

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