The Study of Drought in Future Climate Scenarios in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region

Jiang, Gengmin; Gu, Xiaobo; Zhao, Dongsheng; Xu, Jun; Yang, Changkun; Wang, Siyu; Li, Yuying; Li, Bai-Lian

doi:10.3390/w13233474

Cited by 2 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(47 reference statements)

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“…These differences emphasize the relative roles of precip-itation, evapotranspiration (ET), and runoff in drought caused by climatic factors [27]. Meteorological drought is defined as the water deficit caused by the imbalance between total precipitation and surface evaporation in the study area over a certain period [28]. Meteorological droughts are generally regarded as advanced risk signals for agricultural, and hydrological droughts are often accompanied by economic and social losses.…”

Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The size of PET thus affects the calculation of the SPEI. The Thornthwaite (Th) equation is a method estimating PET by temperature, but ET is also affected by precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and other factors besides temperature [28]. As it is well known that evaporation is a function of more than just temperature, the correct physics includes radiative and aerodynamic controls on evaporative demand [9].…”

Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, changing ET and PET have been detected in response to climate change (e.g., temperature, wind speed, sunshine duration or net radiation, and relative humidity) and thus impact drought [48]. In 1990, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) included the physically based Penman-Monteith (PM) equation as the standard calculation for ET [28]. However, it needs a number of meteorological variables which may not be available everywhere.…”

Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SPEI is a drought index that reflects water deficit at different timescales [28], which is suitable for drought monitoring and analysis in the context of climate change [56]. Based on climatic water balance, the SPEI considers the impact of water budget changes, between precipitation and PET (i.e., amount of transpiration and evaporation under sufficient water), on drought behavior [4,91].…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Yang

Bing

2022

Atmosphere

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Drought is one of the major environmental stressors; drought is increasingly threatening the living environment of mankind. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) with a 12-month timescale was adopted to monitor dry–wet status over China from 1951 to 2021. The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Pettitt tests were used to assess the temporal trend and nonlinear behavior of annual drought variability. The analysis focuses on the spatio-temporal structure of the dry–wet transition and its general connections with climate change processes. In addition, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was applied to forecast the dry–wet behavior in the next year (2022) at 160 stations, and the hotspot areas for extreme dryness–wetness in China were identified in the near term. The results indicate that the dry–wet climate in China overall exhibits interannual variability characterized by intensified drought. The climate in the Northeast China (NEC), North China (NC), Northwest China (NWC), and Southwest China (SWC) has experienced a significant (p < 0.05) drying trend; however, the dry–wet changes in the East China (EC) and South Central China (SCC) are highly spatially heterogeneous. The significant uptrend in precipitation is mainly concentrated to the west of 100° E; the rising magnitude of precipitation is higher in Eastern China near 30° N, with a changing rate of 20–40 mm/decade. Each of the sub-regions has experienced significant (p < 0.01) warming over the past 71 years. Geographically, the increase in temperature north of 30° N is noticeably higher than that south of 30° N, with trend magnitudes of 0.30–0.50 °C/decade and 0.15–0.30 °C/decade, respectively. The response of the northern part of Eastern China to the warming trend had already emerged as early as the 1980s; these responses were earlier and more intense than those south of 40° N latitude (1990s). The drying trends are statistically significant in the northern and southern regions, bounded by 30° N, with trend magnitudes of −0.30–−0.20/decade and −0.20–−0.10/decade, respectively. The northern and southwestern parts of China have experienced a significant (p < 0.05) increase in the drought level since the 1950s, which is closely related to significant warming in recent decades. This study reveals the consistency of the spatial distribution of variations in precipitation and the SPEI along 30° N latitude. A weak uptrend in the SPEI, i.e., an increase in wetness, is shown in Eastern China surrounding 30° N, with a changing rate of 0.003–0.10/decade; this is closely associated with increasing precipitation in the area. Drought forecasting indicates that recent drying areas are located in NWC, the western part of NC, the western part of SWC, and the southern part of SCC. The climate is expected to show wetting characteristics in NEC, the southeastern part of NC, and the eastern part of EC. The dry–wet conditions spanning the area between 30–40° N and 100–110° E exhibit a greater spatial variability. The region between 20–50° N and 80–105° E will continue to face intense challenges from drought in the near future. This study provides compelling evidence for the temporal variability of meteorological drought in different sub-regions of China. The findings may contribute to understanding the spatio-temporal effect of historical climate change on dry–wet variation in the region since the 1950s, particularly in the context of global warming.

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Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Yang

Bing

2022

Atmosphere

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“…In turn, one of the techniques widely used and recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is the Mann-Kendall trend method, which examines the variation trend in a time series of data over time and operates a considerable test range, without the data needing to follow a specific distribution [33][34][35]. Such is the case of [36], in which technique was used to analyze the trends of change and the points of mutation of drought and climatic conditions, and was used to identify the trend of the standardized precipitation index and humidity index of the series [33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aridity Analysis Using a Prospective Geospatial Simulation Model in This Mid-Century for the Northwest Region of Mexico

et al. 2022

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Aridity is a condition in which there is a moisture deficit in the air and soil that affects large areas of the earth’s surface worldwide. It is a global problem caused mainly by factors related to climatic events and human actions. In the arid regions of Mexico, prolonged periods of drought are very common and water scarcity is the predominant feature. The main objective of this study is to develop a prospective geospatial simulation model for arid zones in the short and medium term (2030 and 2050) for the northwestern region of Mexico. A retrospective analysis of the variables that cause aridity was conducted based on historical data from satellite information obtained from various sources between 1985 and 2020, taking 2020 as the reference year; from this information the rate of change per year was obtained, followed by the simulated rates of change for the years 2030 and 2050. A methodology used to obtain arid zones using multicriteria evaluation techniques, weighted linear combination, and Geographic Information Systems. In order to generate the prospective model for arid zones, the variables were modeled to adjust the rate of change for each of them, with the same methodology subsequently applied to obtain the base year (2020), and aridity suitability maps were obtained for the years 2030 and 2050. The main results indicate that the prospective scenarios point to an increase in arid regions of 0.38% and 0.70%, respectively, which is equivalent to an area of approximately 240,164.63 km2 and 241,760.75 km2, respectively. This will cause a decrease in the subhumid–dry and humid regions of 0.10% and 0.19%, respectively, for the projected years. Statistical and geospatial aridity indicators were also generated at different levels, which helps to better understand the problem of aridity in vulnerable regions.

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The Study of Drought in Future Climate Scenarios in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region

Cited by 2 publications

References 39 publications

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Aridity Analysis Using a Prospective Geospatial Simulation Model in This Mid-Century for the Northwest Region of Mexico

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