Abstract:ResumoO presente trabalho tem por objetivo proceder a uma revisão crítica da literatura convencional sobre a abertura financeira, com foco nos países em desenvolvimento. Desde os benefícios teóricos clássicos advindos da integração financeira, até as abordagens mais recentes que se propõem a repensar a globalização, o esforço é de caracterização e análise da evolução da visão convencional. Neste caminho, são apreciados também os debates empíricos relativos ao tema, os posicionamentos dissidentes no interior do… Show more
“…Sicsú (2006) gives a description of the changes to the rules of the domestic exchange market in Brazil in the 2000s in order to advance the financial integration of the country. See also Biancarelli (2010) and Carneiro (1999), among others.…”
This paper discusses the relationship between financial integration and structural change based on a Minsky-Kregel approach. The motivation for this investigation derives from the fact that the opening of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s did not generate a structural change capable of increasing the weight of higher-technological sectors in the manufacturing industry. In theoretical terms we assume that financial liberalization in developing countries induces the loss in importance of the industrial sector in the productive structure, leading to an early deindustrialization process. In addition, it increases the external fragility and reduces the scope for developing countries to implement long-term economic policies to increase their potential output. In our econometric exercise applied to the Brazilian economy in the 2000s it was observed that financial integration and dependence on foreign savings, captured by an international liquidity proxy and dummy variables to incorporate the external financial instability in the period studied, reduced the share of Brazilian industry in GDP.
“…Sicsú (2006) gives a description of the changes to the rules of the domestic exchange market in Brazil in the 2000s in order to advance the financial integration of the country. See also Biancarelli (2010) and Carneiro (1999), among others.…”
This paper discusses the relationship between financial integration and structural change based on a Minsky-Kregel approach. The motivation for this investigation derives from the fact that the opening of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s did not generate a structural change capable of increasing the weight of higher-technological sectors in the manufacturing industry. In theoretical terms we assume that financial liberalization in developing countries induces the loss in importance of the industrial sector in the productive structure, leading to an early deindustrialization process. In addition, it increases the external fragility and reduces the scope for developing countries to implement long-term economic policies to increase their potential output. In our econometric exercise applied to the Brazilian economy in the 2000s it was observed that financial integration and dependence on foreign savings, captured by an international liquidity proxy and dummy variables to incorporate the external financial instability in the period studied, reduced the share of Brazilian industry in GDP.
“…Encaixam-se aqui a crítica ao endividamento externo, que foi a semente para a "crise da dívida" dos anos 1980 (Cruz, 1999), e à abertura fi nanceira nos anos 1990, levada a cabo de maneira imprudente e desatenta ao componente cíclico dos fl uxos de capital (Freitas;Prates, 1998;Biancareli, 2010). Do mesmo modo, a defesa de controles de capital (Bastos;Biancareli;Deos, 2006) e mesmo de uma regulação fi nanceira mais abrangente Prates, , 2018 também dialoga perfeitamente com a abordagem da escassez de divisas. Em contraste com essa aparente complexidade, as abordagens teóricas mais presentes no debate brasileiro atual sustentam a existência de relações bastante diretas entre esses fenômenos.…”
Section: Considerações Fi Naisunclassified
“…Deste último aspecto é exemplo marcante a defesa contra as críticas ao Plano Real pela rápida deterioração da Conta Corrente na segunda metade dos anos de 1990 (Franco, 1998;Mendonça De Barros;Goldenstein, 1997): o défi cit seria natural e transitório, os setores inefi cientes estariam sendo saudavelmente eliminados, e o país recuperava o tempo perdido com 5 Anote-se que essa argumentação acompanha quase que perfeitamente o raciocínio dos "benefícios teóricos" de uma ordem fi nanceira internacional integrada (Obstfeld;Taylor, 2004, seção 1.1). Essa lista, na apreciação crítica feita em Biancareli (2010a), contém: a) compartilhamento e diversifi cação internacional de riscos; b) fi nanciamento de desequilíbrios passageiros de Balanço de Pagamentos; c) acesso à poupança externa para o fi nanciamento do investimento e do desenvolvimento; e d) disciplina sobre a política econômica. 6 Sobre o argumento da disciplina, novamente Franco (1999), em artigo não acadêmico, fornece a melhor defi nição no debate brasileiro: "(...) toda e qualquer irresponsabilidade fi scal será punida exemplarmente, seja sob a forma de ataques especulativos, seja pelo exercício da mais absoluta indiferença.…”
O recebimento de fluxos financeiros do exterior sempre foi elemento crucial na discussão do desenvolvimento econômico no Brasil. Ao longo da história, explicita-se a complexidade da forma de associação entre financiamento externo e desenvolvimento econômico nacional, entendido nas suas dimensões de crescimento econômico, mudança estrutural e sustentabilidade das contas externas. O presente artigo busca, primeiramente, apresentar e sistematizar essas relações segundo as principais teorias presentes no debate brasileiro: a liberal convencional e a “novo-desenvolvimentista”. Em ambas as visões, o conceito de “poupança externa” adquire protagonismo, ainda que com efeitos diametralmente opostos. Em segundo lugar, a partir de contribuições de outros autores, busca-se apresentar e articular os elementos constitutivos de um enfoque alternativo, denominado “abordagem da escassez de divisas”. Pretende-se com isso delinear contornos de uma linha de pesquisa convergente com os desenvolvimentos empíricos mais recentes sobre o tema e contribuir para o avanço do pensamento econômico crítico brasileiro.
“…Some IMF's economists works have acknowledged the potential risks and costs related to international financial integration and specifically to the volatility of capital flows in emerging economies (Prasad et al, 2003;Kose et al, 2006;IMF, 2008), as the surge of capital inflows can have negative effects on emerging economies, including the appreciation of the domestic currency beyond the equilibrium level, fiscal costs of sterilization related to international reserves accumulation, inflationary pressures can result from incomplete sterilization and/or credit boom, and possible bubbles in certain sectors as equity markets. however, IMF (2008) sustains that financial globalization leads to better macroeconomic outcomes when certain threshold conditions of financial and institutional developments are met (financial market development, institutional quality, sound macroeconomic policies, trade integration), but some analysts have argued that such conditions are almost the same factors pointed out as collateral benefits of financial globalization, generating a logical contradiction between consequences and causes (Biancareli, 2008).…”
Section: International Financial Integration Capital Flows and Capitmentioning
Brazil was one of the emerging countries that had a stronger trend of currency appreciation from the 2nd quarter of 2009 to July 2011. Under this context that can be understood the implementation of capital account regulation (CAR) after 2009, which was complemented with another kind of regulation, the so-called FX Derivatives Regulation (FXDR). This paper shows that only when Brazilian government adopted these two kinds of regulations simultaneously, the policy effectiveness increased in terms of protecting the Brazilian currency from upward pressures. Brazilian experience also highlights that it is not possible to establish a hierarchy between temporary instruments to manage capital flows and permanent prudential measures, as supported by the IMF current approach.
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