ResumoPaíses periféricos apresentam especificidades na dinâmica de suas taxas de câmbio e juros e na condução de sua política econômica que nem sempre são consideradas pela teoria econômica convencional. As distintas moedas nacionais têm usos e status diferenciados na economia mundial, gerando padrões igualmente diferenciados na demanda por essas moedas e nos fluxos de capitais que entram e saem dos países emissores. Este artigo baseia-se na hipótese de que essa diferença no posicionamento das moedas no Sistema Monetário Internacional (SMI) -que caracteriza a "hierarquia monetária" -constitui o elemento central de explicação das peculiaridades verificadas no comportamento das taxas de câmbio e juros e, ao fim, na condução da política econômica dos diversos países, tendo influência, portanto, sobre as possibilidades de desenvolvimento econômico desses países. O objetivo deste artigo, portanto, é entender o comportamento diferenciado das taxas de câmbio e juros dos países periféricos, relacionando-o às características do SMI.
Palavras-chave:Moedas periféricas; Liquidez internacional; Taxa de câmbio; Taxa de juros; Política econômica.
Abstract
The hierarchy of currencies and its implications for peripheral countries exchange and interest rate dynamics and economic policyPeripheral countries have a specific dynamics on their exchange and interest rates and on the conduction of their economic policy that is rarely considered by conventional economic theory. National currencies have different status and usages in world economy, engendering different standards for these currencies demand and for the capital that flows to or from the issuer countries. This paper is based on the hypothesis that these different places currencies occupy on the International Monetary System (IMS) -that characterizes the "hierarchy of currencies" -constitute the central element to explain the peculiarities of the exchange and interest rates paths and, finally, on
While the Post Keynesian literature offers a rather clear concept for growth-oriented policies, it is necessary to adapt them for peripheral emerging economies. We base our analysis of an appropriate Keynesian policy mix for these countries on the concept of currency hierarchy, where the currencies of peripheral emerging economies have a lower liquidity premium than the currencies of advanced economies. Under these conditions, we argue that domestic economic policy coordination should lay a major focus on a low policy rate and, especially, a competitive exchange rate for, at least, a balanced current account, in order to prevent capital flows boom-bust-cycles with subsequent financial crises and their damaging effects on employment and growth. We conclude that it is a rather ambitious and long term goal to climb up the currency hierarchy, especially under the current conditions of financial globalization.
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Este artigo pretende avançar na compreensão das causas da maior vulnerabilidade dos países "emergentes" às crises financeiras nos anos 90 a partir de uma abordagem heterodoxa. Argumenta-se que as assimetrias do sistema monetário e financeiro internacional contemporâneo contribuem para explicar essa maior vulnerabilidade, bem como a tendência ao endividamento em moeda estrangeira e à dolarização, fatores subjacentes à recorrência de crises gêmeas - cambiais e bancárias - nesses países.
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