A Theoretical and Empirical Study of Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System

Abstract

This paper examines perceptions of the criminal justice system held by y oung males using longitudinal survey data from the recent National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort and the National Youth Survey. First, a model is developed to study how perceptions respond to individual information about the probability o f arrest and how perceptions a ect criminal behavior. Then, the model is shown to be consistent with the data. Young males who engage in crime but are not arrested revise their perceived probability of arrest downward, while those who are arrested revise their probability u p wards. The perceived probability of arrest is then linked to subsequent criminal behavior youth with a lower perceived probability of arrest are signi cantly more likely to engage in crime during subsequent periods. Perceived probabilities of arrest appear to be idiosyncratic and individual-speci c. As a result, information about the arrests of others, local neighborhood conditions, and o cial arrest rates have little impact on the perceptions of any given individual about his own arrest rate.Another interesting feature of the data on perceptions includes the nding that young males typically report a higher probability of arrest than is actually observed in o cial arrest rates. Consistent with the model, perceived arrest probabilities among those engaged in crime are lower than those of non-criminals. Despite substantial heterogeneity in the perceived probability o f arrest across individuals, those perceptions are di cult to predict from standard background measures, ability, and neighborhood characteristics. Most notably, there do not appear to be substantial di erences in perceptions across race and ethnicity for most of the crimes studied.These ndings suggest that heterogeneity in perceptions may be an important cause for di erences in criminal participation across individuals. Furthermore, those perceptions can be in uenced by the justice system. A model of belief updating and criminal behavior that is consistent with the data suggests that policies enacted to change the actual probability o f arrest will have heterogeneous e ects on individuals with di erent crime and arrest histories, but increases in true arrest rates will lower crime. Since it may take time for information about changes in actual arrest rates to disseminate, changes in enforcement policy are likely to have lagged e ects on crime rates.

Crime, economic conditions, social interactions and family heritage

“…Thus, many researches have incorporated new paradigms to explain the mechanisms that cause crime. New research studies the existing relationship between illegal behavior and social interaction (Grogger, 1997;Imai and Krishna, 2001;Lochner, 2001;Witte and Witt, 2001;inter alia). Another example is the work that links factors related to family situations or heritages to crime (Levitt, 1996;Mocan and Ress, 1999).…”

“…The model of criminality dealt with here will closely follow the methodology applied in practice with other works, i.e. to estimate the variable qualitative model of probit type (Levitt and Lochner, 2000;Lochner, 2001). This model seeks to estimate the factors exercising impact on the probability of committing different types of crime.…”

Associação espacial das taxas de crimes letais nos municípios do Rio Grande do Sul

“…Isto é, "será que crimes violentos, como homicídio e estupro, são influenciados de forma diferente de crimes financeiros, como roubo e furto?". O conhecimento da interação social, como as ligações familiares ou valores religiosos de uma comunidade são importantes no combate a violência (Lochner, 2001;Sachsida, Loureiro e Mendonça, 2002). Mas essa é apenas uma variável entre muitas que podem afetar o comportamento ilegal por parte social dos indivíduos.…”

Ex-Convicts Face Multiple Labor Market Punishments: Estimates of Peer-Group and Stigma Effects using Equations of Returns to Schooling

“…Since Becker's contribution, several scholars have studied different aspects of crime. Some notable empirical works are Ehrlich (1973Ehrlich ( , 1975, Witte e Witt (2001) and Lochner (2001). On the theory side, good examples are Davis (1988), Glaeser et alii (1996) and Glaeser e Sacerdote (1999).…”