Rainfall trends for the State of Paraná: present and future climate

Abstract

This paper analyzes the variability and the precipitation trend of the State of Paraná, in Brazil. For that, monthly precipitation data belonging to 24 precipitation stations in a 30-year period (1980-2010) were analyzed and they were compared with projections of precipitation for the years 2016-2050. These data were simulated by Eta/Miroc5 for RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies CPTEC/INPE and the historical data of precipitation were taken from National Water Agency (ANA). The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect trends and magnitudes, respectively. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare the median of the historical series (1980-2010) with the simulated series (2016-2050) and the comparison of the means between the two series was performed by Test t. The results draw attention to the great variability and significant changes in the monthly average rainfall that may occur, if the climate change scenarios that were considered become a reality in the near future.

Analysis of Streamflow Variability and Trends in the Meta River, Colombia

“…Trend detection is a current topic in hydrological research in Brazilian watersheds. Several authors have employed the MK test for the analysis of streamflow and precipitation trends in human-populated basins [19][20][21], the evaluation of the impacts of land-cover and land-use changes on the hydrological regime [22], the estimation of resource availability for water distribution systems [23], and the assessment of surface water quality near urban centers [24], among other purposes.…”

Análise de Séries Hidrológicas na Bacia Hidrográfica afluente à Usina Hidrelétrica Castro Alves, RS

“…No Sul do Brasil, as afluências mostraram-se não-estacionárias nos estudos de Detzel et al (2011) e Bartiko et al (2017). Com relação às séries de precipitação no Brasil, relatase tanto viés crescente (Berlato e Cordeiro;Nunes et al, 2018;Quadros et al, 2018;Guedes et al, 2019) como decrescente (Santos e Nishiyama, 2016), e ainda ausência de tendência (Sá et al, 2018;Alcântara et al, 2019;Melo et al, 2019).…”

Stochastic investigation of hydrological extremes

“…(Sir Alec Cairncross, 1969, signing as "Stein Age Forecaster") In the past decades there has been a plethora of trend analyses in rainfall studies (Bunting et al, 1976;Haylock andNicholls, 2000, 2000;Rotstayn and Lohmann, 2002;Modarres and da Silva, 2007;Ntegeka and Willems, 2008;Kumar et al, 2010), and it could be argued that relevant studies are still on the rise (e.g. Biasutti, 2019;Degefu et al, 2019;Folton et al, 2019;Khan et al, 2019;Papalexiou and Montanari, 2019;Quadros et al, 2019;Rahimi and Fatemi, 2019). A quantitative analysis of the relevant literature is provided in Section 8.3.1.…”