Analysis of Streamflow Variability and Trends in the Meta River, Colombia

Arrieta-Castro, Marco; Donado-Rodríguez, Adriana; Acuña, Guillermo J.; Canales, Fausto A.; Teegavarapu, Ramesh S. V.; Kaźmierczak, Bartosz

doi:10.3390/w12051451

Cited by 25 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…The same incongruity can be inferred for the remaining fraction of the department, because the Mann-Kendall test did not show significant trends in this area. This conclusion coincides with other studies about trends in hydroclimatic variables for the Colombian Plains and central region [25,27,56].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…This nonparametric test adapts to missing values and is unaffected by atypical data, and its null hypothesis is the absence of trends. We can accept the alternative hypothesis that indicates the existence of a monotonic trend in the time series only if p < α, at the test significance level α [56]. The adopted significance in this study was assumed as 0.05, which, in a two-tailed test (α/2), corresponds to |Z| = 1.96 [57].…”

Section: Trend Detection and Spatiotemporal Variability Of Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The trend analysis employs the Theil-Sen slope estimator (SS), a nonparametric metric that approximates the trends' magnitude [56]. This metric is determined by the slopes of the lines (Q i ) connecting the data pairs (N), with their values obtained through the following equation:…”

Section: Trend Detection and Spatiotemporal Variability Of Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of Precipitation Variability and Trends Based on Satellite Estimations for a Heterogeneous Colombian Region

2021

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Adequate water resources management includes understanding patterns and spatiotemporal variability of precipitation, as this variable is determinant for ecosystems’ stability, food security, and most human activities. Based on satellite estimations validated through ground measurements from 59 meteorological stations, the objective of this study is to evaluate the long-term spatiotemporal variability and trends of the average monthly precipitation in the Magdalena Department, Colombia, for the 1981–2018 period. This heterogeneous region comprises many different ecoregions in its 23,188 km2 area. The analysis of spatial variability allowed for the determination of four different subregions based on the differences in the average values of precipitation and the degree of rainfall variability. The trend analysis indicates that the current rainfall patterns contradict previous estimates of a progressive decrease in annual averages due to climate change in the study region, as most of the department does not exhibit statistically significant trends, except for the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta area, where this study found reductions between 10 mm yr−1 and 30 mm yr−1. The findings of this study also suggest the existence of some links between precipitation patterns with regional phenomena of climate variability and solar activity.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Trend Detection and Spatiotemporal Variability Of Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Assessment of Precipitation Variability and Trends Based on Satellite Estimations for a Heterogeneous Colombian Region

2021

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“…There are several statistical tests for detecting trends in hydrological time-series (e.g., linear regression test, the Mann-Kendall test (M-K), and the Spearman's rho test). This research employs the non-parametric M-K test, widely applied in hydrological studies [47][48][49][50][51], mostly because M-K does not require normally distributed data and it has low sensitivity to outliers, in this case, extreme meteorological phenomena such as floods or droughts.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Trends in 20-Day Cumulative Precipitation for Residential Rainwater Harvesting in Poland

Canales

Gwoździej-Mazur

Jadwiszczak

et al. 2020

Water

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Rainwater harvesting (RWH) for domestic uses is widely regarded as an economic and ecological solution in water conservation and storm management programs. This paper aims at evaluating long-term trends in 20-day cumulative rainfall periods per year in Poland, for assessing its impact on the design and operation conditions for RWH systems and resource availability. The time-series employed corresponds to a set of 50-year long time-series of rainfall (from 1970 to 2019) recorded at 19 synoptic meteorological stations scattered across Poland, one of the European countries with the lowest water availability index. The methods employed for assessing trends were the Mann–Kendall test (M–K) and the Sen’s slope estimator. Most of the datasets exhibit stationary behaviour during the 50-year long period, however, statistically significant downward trends were detected for precipitations in Wrocław and Opole. The findings of this study are valuable assets for integrated water management and sustainable planning in Poland.

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“…There are several statistical tests for detecting trends in meteorological time series (e.g., linear regression test and the Mann-Kendall test). This research employs the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test widely applied in meteorological studies [43][44][45]. This test uses rank correlation statistics to answer the question of whether the values measured in the time series present a statistically significant increasing or decreasing trend.…”

Section: Statistical Significance Of Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complementarity and ‘Resource Droughts’ of Solar and Wind Energy in Poland: An ERA5-Based Analysis

et al. 2021

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In recent years, Poland has experienced a significant increase in the installed capacity of solar and wind power plants. Renewables are gaining increasing interest not only because of Poland’s obligations to European Union policies, but also because they are becoming cheaper. Wind and solar energy are fairly-well investigated technologies in Poland and new reports are quite frequently added to the existing research works documenting their potential and the issues related to their use. In this article, we analyze the spatial and temporal behavior of solar and wind resources based on reanalysis datasets from ERA5. This reanalysis has been selected because it has appropriate spatial and temporal resolution and fits the field measurements well. The presented analysis focuses only on the availability of energy potential/resources, so characteristics intrinsic to energy conversion (like wind turbine power curve) were not considered. The analysis considered the last 40 years (1980–2019) of available data. The Spearman coefficient of correlation was considered as a complementarity metric, and the Mann–Kendal test was used to assess the statistical significance of trends. The results revealed that: The temporal complementarity between solar and wind resources exists mostly on a seasonal scale and is almost negligible for daily and hourly observations. Moreover, solar and wind resources in joint operation exhibit a smoother availability pattern (assessed based on coefficient of variation). Further findings show that the probability of ‘resource droughts’ (periods when cumulative generation was less than arbitrary threshold) lasting one day is 11.5% for solar resources, 21.3% for wind resources and only 6.2% if both resources are considered in a joint resource evaluation. This situation strongly favors the growth of local hybrid systems, as their combined power output would exhibit lower variability and intermittency, thus decreasing storage demand and/or smoothing power system operation.

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Analysis of Streamflow Variability and Trends in the Meta River, Colombia

Cited by 25 publications

References 43 publications

Assessment of Precipitation Variability and Trends Based on Satellite Estimations for a Heterogeneous Colombian Region

Assessment of Precipitation Variability and Trends Based on Satellite Estimations for a Heterogeneous Colombian Region

Long-Term Trends in 20-Day Cumulative Precipitation for Residential Rainwater Harvesting in Poland

Complementarity and ‘Resource Droughts’ of Solar and Wind Energy in Poland: An ERA5-Based Analysis

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