From semi-stagnation to growth in a sino-centric market

Abstract

According to recent available information, the Brazilian economy may be entering a cycle of sustained growth. The dominant current interpretation points to the progresses made in terms of monetary stability, Balance of Payments and structural reforms. Indeed, without monetary stability and the commercial opening of the economy, investments would not be increasing and credit growth would not be helping the emergence of millions of new consumers. But these achievements should be taken as generally conditioning, rather than actually shaping the new picture. Some unexpected (not rarely positive) consequences of overcoming the long enduring semi-stagnation, the emergence of China as a major player, and its consequences on the necessary re-structuring of the Brazilian industry, seem to be decisive in the present day redefinition of the Brazilian GDP growth potential.

Democracia E Globalização: Políticas De Previdência Social Na Argentina, Brasil E Chile

“…A entrada da China no mercado mundial, desempenhando aí um papel de enorme relevo, permitiu a difusão do crescimento para regiões que antes estavam com baixo desempenho econômico, como a América Latina. Na verdade, a alta dos preços de commodities agrícolas, industriais e de energia, a partir de 2002, permitiu que países como Brasil, Argentina e Chile "pegassem carona no trem chinês", elevando seus níveis de crescimento, e até pudessem enfrentar a crise de 2008 em situação melhor do que os países centrais (Castro, 2008;Miguel, 2011).…”

The performance of Chinese and Brazilian exports to Latin America, 1994-2009

“…Although the Chinese trend outperformed Brazil's, China's trade intensity with Latin America is still less China: Export concentration ratio (cr) to Latin America, 1995, 1999, 2004, 2008 China: Exports to Latin America (Excluding America, table 5 shows the corresponding indicator for the Brazilian economy. As in the case of China, Brazilian export destinations in Latin American countries are becoming more concentrated, particularly in Argentina.…”

“…Table 6 gives details of subsectors 19 in which the share of imports from Brazil declined substantially, as the 19 The subsectors category used in this section corresponds to the three-digit breakdown of the National Classification of Economic Activities (cnae), obtained from the International Standard Industrial Classification (isic) produced by the United Nations. Brazil: Concentration ratio (cr) of exports to Latin America, 1997,1999, 2004, 2008 share of imports from the Chinese economy grew in the total imports of the subsector by the Argentine market. Increases in the share of imports from China compared to those from Brazil have occurred particularly in labour-intensive subsectors (manufacture of textile products, footwear and furniture items) and electroelectronics generally.…”

“…Those subsectors were defined on the basis of choosing those showing a net average competitiveness 21 See Leamer and Stern (1970); Batista (2002). Gain and loss of competitiveness of selected sectors of Brazilian and Chinese exports to Latin America, 1994-2008and 2003-2008 Country Subsector Brazil 1994Brazil -2008Brazil 2003Brazil -2008Brazil 1994Brazil -2008Brazil 2003Brazil -2008 1994-2008 2003-2008 1994-2008 2003-2008 On the other hand, there has been a considerable improvement in the net total competitiveness gain of Brazilian exports in the short period, in other words since 2003. Between 2003 and 2008, this value amounted to US$1,769 million per year, for a cumulative value of US$8.9 billion.…”

Energizing Industrial Development: The Role of the State in 21st Century Greening Strategies

“…On Brazil's strategies of industrialization generally, see for exampleCastro (2008) orSchutte (2012).…”