In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has
been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and
nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina
between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys
(Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this
disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies.
Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal
was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among
endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans)
populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to
evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a
stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease
epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a
very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the
modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its
effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based
decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.