A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Ribeiro, Ana Freitas; Tengan, Ciléa; Sato, Helena Keico; Spínola, Roberta Maria Fernandes; Mascheretti, Melissa; França, Ana Cecília Costa; Port‐Carvalho, Marcio; Pereira, Mariza; Souza, Renato Pereira de; Amaku, Marcos; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento; Coutinho, Francisco Antônio Bezerra; López, Luis Fernández; Massad, Eduardo

doi:10.1590/0074-02760140345

Cited by 14 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The importance assignment phase according to the comparator scale is considered one of the most important steps in the definition of risk areas, since the values awarded to a factor directly impact the obtained result. The weights attributed to the physical-environmental elements used in this study were defined according to the importance conferred by several health secretaries on the factors related to YF occurrence, 23 and the factors of the existence of non-human primates Alouatta and Callithrix , presence of mosquitoes, and land cover and use with forest formations were awarded the greatest importance. Transitioning biomes, such as savanna formation and groves were awarded intermediate importance and the urban area category was awarded the lowest value in the analysis, since the present study aimed to analyse the sylvatic form of YF.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of the spatial susceptibility to Yellow Fever using a multicriteria analysis

Paiva

Oliveira

Muniz

et al. 2019

Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz

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BACKGROUND The outbreak of sylvatic Yellow Fever (SYF) in humans during 2016-2017 in Brazil is one of the greatest in the history of the disease. The occurrence of the disease in areas with low vaccination coverage favoured the dissemination of the disease; therefore, it is necessary to identify the areas vulnerability to the YF virus (YFV) to assist in the adoption of preventive measures. OBJECTIVE To correlate the physical-environmental elements associated with the occurrence of SYF in humans via a multicriteria analysis. METHODS For the multicriteria analysis, preponderant elements related to SYF occurrences, including soil usage and coverage, temperature, precipitation, altitude, mosquito transmitters, and non-human primate occurrence areas, were considered. The results were validated by assessing the correlation between the incidence of SYF and the vulnerable areas identified in the multicriteria analysis. RESULTS Two regions with different vulnerability to the occurrence of the disease were identified in the multicriteria analysis, with emphasis on the southern areas of the state of São Paulo northeast areas of Minas Gerais, and the entire states of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo. The map of SYF vulnerability obtained in the multicriteria analysis coincides with the areas in which cases of the disease have been recorded. The regions that presented the greatest suitability were in fact the municipalities with the highest incidence. MAIN CONCLUSIONS The multicriteria analysis revealed that the elements that were used are suited for and consistent in the prediction of the areas that are vulnerable to SYF. The results obtained indicate the proximity of the areas that are most vulnerable to the disease to densely populated areas where an Aedes aegypti infestation was observed, which confers a high risk of re-urbanisation of YF.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of the spatial susceptibility to Yellow Fever using a multicriteria analysis

Paiva

Oliveira

Muniz

et al. 2019

Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz

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“…Estes vetores alimentam-se preferencialmente de primatas não humanos e, secundariamente, do homem (SAAD & BARATA, 2016;SVS;. Nestes casos, os primatas não humanos (PNH) são os principais hospedeiros e amplificadores do vírus, já o ser humano é hospedeiro acidental, que se infecta, quando não devidamente imunizado, ao entrar em uma área de mata em ambientes rurais ou silvestres no período em que a circulação viral esteja ocorrendo (RIBEIRO et al, 2005;MASCHERETTI et al, 2009).…”

Section: Febre Amarelaunclassified

“…A pesar de não existir vacina antirrábica para animais silvestres, a vacinação anual de cães e gatos é eficaz na prevenção da Raiva nesses animais, o que consequentemente previne também a Raiva humana. De acordo com Tauil, P. L. (2010) eRibeiro et al (2005), quando se trata da vacinação de toda a população brasileira, algumas questões entram em discussão, como a existência de grupos populacionais com contraindicação da vacina (imunossuprimidos, pessoas em tratamento de neoplasias malignas, portadores de alergias a proteínas do ovo, mulheres grávidas e pessoas com mais de 60 anos) e até mesmo o risco de óbito. O ideal é que se mantenha uma alta cobertura vacinal nas áreas consideradas de risco(RIBEIRO et al, 2005).Segundo o Ministério da Saúde (2019), desde 2017 a Organização Mundial da Saúde recomenda que seja tomada uma dose da vacina para FA, o que é suficiente para garantir imunidade e proteção para toda a vida, em contrapartida, de acordo com Medeiros (2018), devido à epidemia ocorrida em 2016/2017 se fez necessário um grande volume de doses de que não havia disponibilidade no curto prazo.…”

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Aspecto epidemiológico da febre amarela e raiva envolvendo primatas não humanos. Período de 2014 a 2018, região bragantina sp

Bom¹,

Costa²

2020

UNIFAAT

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As zoonoses representam uma preocupação constante para as autoridades e profissionaisvoltados à saúde pública e medicina preventiva. O estudo teve como objetivo principalinvestigar os aspectos epidemiológicos da Febre Amarela e da Raiva envolvendo primatas nãohumanos, nos anos de 2014 a 2018 na região de Bragança Paulista – SP. Para a realização doestudo, foram utilizados questionários aplicados via e-mail aos serviços de vigilânciaepidemiológica e de controle de zoonoses dos municípios da região estudada. Estes foramelaborados contendo 22 perguntas. É importante a análise dos dados epidemiológicos, poisdessa forma o serviço de saúde pública pode antecipar seus movimentos para assim poderproteger a população humana suscetível.

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“…To estimate all P(dead|RF) of the 48 RF, a simple survey based on the Delphi method was elaborated [9][10][11]. In this survey, veterinarians were invited to evaluate these 48 RF and to assign a grade in a Likert scale [12] from 0 to 10 for each RF.…”

Section: Interviewing Veterinariansmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new method for the interpretation of veterinary forensic necropsy and PMCT finding with Bayesian decision theory

Massad

Shimozako

Ribas

et al. 2018

Journal of Forensic Radiology and Imaging

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This work proposes a novel approach to estimate the sensitivity of post-mortem computed tomography (PMCT) with respect to traditional necropsy (gold standard). Using concepts of Bayes theorem and the opinion of 57 veterinarians of how a relevant finding (RF) on PMCT or at necropsy can be a determinant in the animal's death, the general sensitivity was estimated. Such sensitivity can be interpreted as the probability to identify a specific RF in a necropsied animal. In the study, we included 18 animals that were subjected to traditional necropsy and underwent PMCT, which provided 48 different findings; all were assumed as a potential cause of death. This study aimed to understand the probability of death, given that a necropsied animal presented a specific RF. To estimate all contributions of the 48 RF, we designed a simple survey based on the Delphi method. In this survey, we invited veterinarians to evaluate the 48 NF and to assign a grade in a Likert scale from 0 to 10 for each of the RFs. In this scale, 0 (zero) indicates that the NF does not contribute to the animal's death, and 10 (ten) indicates that this NFdoes totally contributes to the animal's death. Therefore, each veterinarian, according to their own professional experience, assigns a grade describing how important each necroscopic finding is to the animal's death. Our results demonstrated that the problem of sensitivity analysis in the absence of a gold standard could be circumvented by the method proposed here.

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A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Cited by 14 publications

References 12 publications

Determination of the spatial susceptibility to Yellow Fever using a multicriteria analysis

Determination of the spatial susceptibility to Yellow Fever using a multicriteria analysis

Aspecto epidemiológico da febre amarela e raiva envolvendo primatas não humanos. Período de 2014 a 2018, região bragantina sp

A new method for the interpretation of veterinary forensic necropsy and PMCT finding with Bayesian decision theory

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