Social security reforms under an open economy: the Brazilian case

Ferreira, Sérgio Guimarães

doi:10.1590/s0034-71402004000300003

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Ferreira (2004) studies social security reform in Brazil in the context of a small open economy. He finds large welfare gains from social security reform.…”

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confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic implications of early retirement in the public sector: The case of Brazil

Glomm

Jung

Tran

2009

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

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JEL classification: E21 E62 H55 J26 J45 a b s t r a c t In Brazil generous public sector pensions have induced civil servants to retire on average at age 55. In this paper we assess the efficiency gains from eliminating such policy induced early retirement in a two-sector overlapping generations economy. We find the adverse effects of that policy are significant. Specifically, the generosity of public sector pensions which induces civil servants to retire 5 years prematurely (at age 55 rather than at age 60) is often associated with decreases in steady state output (GDP) of almost 3% and welfare losses in the private sector of more than 3% of consumption.

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“…Ferreira (2004) studies social security reform in Brazil in the context of a small open economy. He finds large welfare gains from social security reform.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic implications of early retirement in the public sector: The case of Brazil

Glomm

Jung

Tran

2009

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

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“…A Tabela 2 1, a seguir, apresenta os valores de alguns dos principais parâmetros utilizados e os compara com os trabalhos de Lledo (2005) A Tabela 1 mostra que os valores dos parâmetros utilizados no modelo estão pró-ximos dos valores utilizados em Ferreira (2004) e Lledo (2005, ainda que a elasticidade de substituição intertemporal e a taxa de desconto utilizadas no modelo sejam superiores aos valores utilizados por aqueles autores. As diferenças nesses parâmetros são explicadas, em grande medida, pela introdução, no modelo, de incerteza quanto ao tempo de vida das famílias.…”

Section: Calibração Do Modelounclassified

Impactos de políticas de desoneração do setor produtivo: uma avaliação a partir de um modelo de gerações superpostas

Cavalcanti

Silva

2010

Estud. Econ.

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ResumoO objetivo deste trabalho é contribuir para o debate sobre a forma ideal de desoneração do setor produtivo, através da simulação de diferentes medidas de reforma tributária no País, a partir de um modelo de equilíbrio geral com gerações superpostas, calibrado para o Brasil. Busca-se, em particular, comparar medidas de desoneração do fator trabalho e medidas de desoneração do fator capital, ambas compensadas por aumentos na tributação do consumo, no que tange a seus impactos esperados sobre o PIB, acumulação de capital e nível de bem-estar no País. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, a desoneração do fator capital pode levar a aumentos substanciais de capital e produto relativamente à desoneração do fator trabalho. Ambas as políticas devem gerar perdas de bem-estar para as gerações mais velhas existentes no momento da reforma tributária e ganhos de bem-estar para as gerações futuras, mas os efeitos sobre as gerações intermediárias podem ser bastante distintos em cada caso. Palavras-Chave política fiscal, desoneração tributária, gerações superpostas AbstractThis paper aims to contribute to the debate on the best way to reduce the tax burden on the production sector in Brazil, by simulating an overlapping generations model calibrated to the country's economy. Our focus is on the comparison of the macroeconomic and welfare impacts brought about by policies that reduce the tax burden on labour and policies based on the reduction of the tax burden on capital. According to our results, reducing the tax burden on capital may lead to substantial gains in terms of capital accumulation and GDP relative to reducing the burden on labour. Both types of policies must generate welfare losses to elderly generations alive when the reform takes place and welfare gains to future generations, but the effects on intermediate generations may differ substantially under each policy.Keywords fiscal policy, tax reform, overlapping generations JEL Classification E60, H20 Os autores agradecem os comentários dos participantes de seminário realizado no IPEA, onde uma versão anterior do trabalho foi apresentada, bem como as sugestões de um parecerista anônimo.

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“…The change in the social security regime of capitalization distribution was very present in the Brazilian literature. S. G. Ferreira (2004) uses an OLG model to calculate the short-term and long-term effects of several pension reforms, with changes such as the choice between an allocation system, capitalization or intermediate situations. The author concludes that partial reforms that reduce replacement rate or exchange the tax base from work to consumption produce positive long-term effects, but a high fiscal cost remains in the transition.…”

Section: Introduction and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The collapse of Brazilian Social Security: Macroeconomic impacts of the increase of the minimum age of PEC nº 287/2016 reform

Freitas

Paes

2019

Brazilian Review of Econometrics

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This paper presents a simulation of the economic impacts of the increase of the minimum age contained in the Proposal for Constitutional Amendment (PEC) Nº 287/2016. For that, an overlapping generations (OLG) model with 57 generations was built, including the transition rule. The results suggest that not increasing the minimum age for retirement is a very bad choice for society. The fiscal situation becomes unsustainable, and the expansion of social security expenditures, in combination with the reduction of the labor supply, leads the country to a scenario of a sharp fall in consumption and output per capita. The simulation with the new minimum retirement age of PEC Nº 287/2016 indicates that, although it is not the definitive solution to the Brazilian pension issue. The results of the model indicate that raising the minimum age avoids a very bad scenario, but does not seem to be even able to maintain the current level of output per capita. As a policy suggestion, although PEC Nº 287/2016 has not even been voted, the recommendation is that it represents a minimum level for the next pension reform.

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Social security reforms under an open economy: the Brazilian case

Cited by 5 publications

References 13 publications

Macroeconomic implications of early retirement in the public sector: The case of Brazil

Macroeconomic implications of early retirement in the public sector: The case of Brazil

Impactos de políticas de desoneração do setor produtivo: uma avaliação a partir de um modelo de gerações superpostas

The collapse of Brazilian Social Security: Macroeconomic impacts of the increase of the minimum age of PEC nº 287/2016 reform

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