Rigidez na balança comercial e movimentos de capital: uma abordagem estruturalista

The aim of the present paper is to apply a Markov Switching model to check the characteristics of the Brazilian demand for imports equation based on annual data from 1947 to 2002 and on quarterly data from 1978:I to 2002:II. The results show that this model satisfactorily describes the structural and conjunctural characteristics of Brazilian foreign trade in the last decades. The long-term analysis, based on annual data, allowed for the identification of cyclic periods of trade closure and openness that coincide with the historical events of Brazilian economy. The conjunctural analysis, based on quarterly data, indicates different elasticities for a regime with rise and fall in imports.

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O Modelo de Thirlwall com variações nas elasticidades

Nakabashi

2007

Econ. soc.

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Fluxo de capitais é um importante elemento no crescimento econômico por diversos motivos. Um deles é porque ele alivia a restrição no balanço de pagamentos de acordo com a Lei de Thirlwall. A explicação é que pelo fato de ocorrer uma elevação no nível de importações quando há um crescimento da renda de uma determinada economia deverá ocorrer uma entrada de recursos via exportações ou fluxo de capitais para que seja possível o fechamento do balanço de pagamentos (BP). O foco do presente trabalho está na avaliação de como o fluxo de capitais afetou o crescimento da economia brasileira no período 1947-2000, considerando que as elasticidades-renda das importações mudam ao longo do tempo.

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Rigidez na balança comercial e movimentos de capital: uma abordagem estruturalista

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

Effects of interest and exchange rate policies on Brazilian exports

Effects of interest and exchange rate policies on Brazilian exports

A Markov Switching Model for the Brazilian Demand for Imports: Analyzing the Import Substitution Process in Brazil

O Modelo de Thirlwall com variações nas elasticidades

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