Análise de Risco Econômico de Dois Sistemas Produtivos de Carvão Vegetal

Abstract

RESUMOO objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a viabilidade econômica da produção de carvão vegetal em sistema fornos-fornalha e fornos do tipo rabo-quente e realizar a simulação de risco de investimento. A análise econômica foi realizada pela determinação de Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), Valor Anual Equivalente (VAE) e Razão Benefício-Custo (B/C). A análise de risco foi realizada pelo método de Monte Carlo. O sistema fornos-fornalha apresentou maior viabilidade econômica. Os indicadores econômicos se mostraram viáveis e a análise de risco indicou probabilidade de os projetos serem inviáveis economicamente de 0,9% e 27,3% para o sistema fornos-fornalha e fornos rabo-quente, respectivamente. Conclui-se que a inclusão da análise de risco nas análises econômicas resulta em maior segurança para inferir sobre os indicadores econômicos.Palavras-chave: fornos de alvenaria, valor presente líquido, simulação de Monte Carlo. Economic Risk Analysis of Two Systems of Charcoal Production ABSTRACTThis study aimed to analyze the economic viability of charcoal production in kilns-furnace system and "rabo-quente" kilns, as well as the investment risk simulation. The economic analysis was performed by determining the following indicators: Net Present Value (NPV), Equivalent Annual Value (EAV) and Benefit -Cost Reason (B/C). The risk analysis was performed by the Monte Carlo method. Economic indicators were viable. Kilns-furnace system evidenced to be more viable economically. Risk analysis indicated that there is probability to economical unviability of evaluated systems, 0.9% and 27.3% for kilns-furnace system and "rabo-quente" kilns, respectively. Inclusion of risk analysis in economic analysis of charcoal production projects results in greater security to infer on economic indicators.

Characteristics of Wood and Charcoal from Eucalyptus clones

“…Quantification and analysis of lignin content in the wood are fundamental characteristics for selecting Eucalyptus clones for bioenergy production due to the positive and linear relationship between this compound and the calorific value (Oliveira et al, 2017). Thus, in order to better explain the behavior of the GG100 and I144 clones, we recommend determining the lignin, holocellulose and extractive contents, as well as the C, H and O concentrations, given that the energy characteristics are influenced by the chemical biomass composition.…”

“…These characteristics vary depending on the genetic material and throughout the tree trunk. Therefore, the wood of a given clone and its longitudinal position may affect charcoal characteristics (Arantes et al, 2013;Buttini et al, 2013;Silva et al, 2015;Oliveira et al, 2017).…”

STRUCTURING AND CHARACTERIZATION OF THE Acacia meanrsii De Wild CHARCOAL PRODUCTION CHAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF CAÍ AND TAQUARI, RS

“…Brazilian charcoal production is still largely carried out in rudimentary masonry furnaces, with empirical control of carbonization, resulting in low gravimetric yield and social, economic, and environmental impacts (Oliveira et al, 2017). However, the authors note that more modern production systems, such as the oven-furnace system, have been adopted, obtaining, in addition to the technological contribution, the environmental gain, due to the system having low emission of pollutants during carbonization, since they emit only heat, water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ).…”

Profitability of Adopting Winter Bt Corn in Middle Paranapanema Region-Sp, Brazil, Under Risk Conditions

“…In agriculture, this tool is commonly used to analyze risk in investment projects and profitability of agricultural activities (COELHO JUNIOR et al, 2015;SABAG et al, 2015;OLIVEIRA et al, 2017).…”