Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

Abstract

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Climate change is likely to affect the distribution but not parapatry of the Brazilian marmoset monkeys (Callithrix spp.)

“…Additionally, the widespread deforestation of the Atlantic Forest (Ribeiro, Metzger, Martensen, Ponzoni, & Hirota, 2009) may act in synergy with future climate change, reducing the ability of species to adapt to that change (Hof, Levinsky, Araújo, & Rahbek, 2011). To top it all, the frequent and recent outbreaks of yellow fever in the Atlantic Forest (Moreno et al, 2011;Paules & Fauci, 2017) and its severe impacts on populations of primate species (Fialho et al, 2012;Holzmann et al, 2010;Moreno et al, 2015) worsen the situation of future conservation of endangered marmosets.…”

First case report of non‐human primates (Alouatta clamitans) with the hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae serotype K1 strain ST 23: A possible emerging wildlife pathogen

“…The southern brown howler monkey ( Alouatta clamitans ) is a species of neotropical primate endemic to the Atlantic Forest, one of the most threatened hotspots of biodiversity in the world. Although the conservation status is considered to be of little concern globally, the species is considered endangered in Brazil (MMA, 2014) and Argentina, due to fragmentation and loss of habitat, as well as infectious diseases …”

Histopathological kidney changes and myoglobinuria in neotropical non‐human primates attacked by dogs, Brazil

“…Forest loss and fragmentation are the main threats . Recently, emerging infectious diseases, like YF, have been cited as a cause of population decline and local extinction . Other threats to brown howler monkeys are a consequence of anthropic invasion of natural landscapes, as eletrocussions, vehicle collisions and the presence of dogs .…”