The main difficulty of describing natural emergency as a random process is the large number of parameters that must be quantified. Authors suggest threating the onset of emergency as a discrete random variable; each possible implementation corresponds to the defined size of the expected damage to transportation infrastructure. The analysis of the engineering and environmental surveys via geo-information technologies identified expected probability of occurrence and scale of the annual damage for 10 types of emergency situations on long-term (up to 2030) for State Company Russian Highways road network.
The risk of auto-roads’ functionality loss in the territories of the long-term (eternal) permafrost in connection with predicted climatic changes is estimated on road structure’s reliability value with use of the existing regulating legal documents. The quantitative risk assessment of functionality loss has been carried out by methods of probabilistic and statistical simulation for the main auto-roads in permafrost zone. It has been shown that in the climatic conditions typical for Russia’s cryolithic zone, increase in air temperature by 1 degree causes an essential increase of risk for an auto-road’s functionality loss. Temperature regime’s contrast change is the second significant factor influencing the risk.
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