A Method of Predicting Risk of Natural Emergencies on Road Network

Abstract

The main difficulty of describing natural emergency as a random process is the large number of parameters that must be quantified. Authors suggest threating the onset of emergency as a discrete random variable; each possible implementation corresponds to the defined size of the expected damage to transportation infrastructure. The analysis of the engineering and environmental surveys via geo-information technologies identified expected probability of occurrence and scale of the annual damage for 10 types of emergency situations on long-term (up to 2030) for State Company Russian Highways road network.