Method for Assessment of Risk of Auto-Roads’ Functionality Loss in Territories of Long-Term (Eternal) Permafrost in Connection with Projected Climatic Changes

Abstract

The risk of auto-roads’ functionality loss in the territories of the long-term (eternal) permafrost in connection with predicted climatic changes is estimated on road structure’s reliability value with use of the existing regulating legal documents. The quantitative risk assessment of functionality loss has been carried out by methods of probabilistic and statistical simulation for the main auto-roads in permafrost zone. It has been shown that in the climatic conditions typical for Russia’s cryolithic zone, increase in air temperature by 1 degree causes an essential increase of risk for an auto-road’s functionality loss. Temperature regime’s contrast change is the second significant factor influencing the risk.