The article describes the technology of performance management as a special type of management, which is based on comparison between the achieved and planned indicators. The authors prove the necessity to implement this method into the practice of government agencies and their officials' activities managing. In Russia, this method is used in stuff management, i.e. at enterprises, but not in government. There is no practice of public obligations of agencies' heads for their annual work. The term "performance management" is not used in Russian science, it is replaced by "management by results," which has absolutely other meaning. It seems that the Russian state leaders see a low level of quality management in the country. There were calls for improved planning and separate measures have been proposed at least in the presidential decrees. The authors of the article reveal some improvements, but consider them absolutely inadequate. For the argumentation of this conclusion, the accounts of the Ministry of Economic Development-the profile structure in the Government responsible for carrying out economic and administrative reforms-considered. The result of our calculations: the report does not comply with the principles of the PM, of the planned indicators the report contained only 11%.
Research background The fight against the pandemic has become not only a field for implementing medical efforts to counter the disease, but also an arena for identifying government (as well as corporate) technologies for effective management. Sad circumstances make it more urgent to compare the potential of state systems in the face of force majeure. They re-highlight the role of public confidence to their government as a factor of readiness to switch to a regime of strict self-restraint. Again, an analysis of social and economic investment clearly shows the true priorities of governments. It is clear that it is too early to draw conclusions, the fight against the epidemic is far from complete, but a number of major comparative studies have been launched, and scientists publish studies describing the situation in their countries. Purpose of the article: to show the role of science as a factor that implements the trends of globalization; to identify the main global models of government measures, comparing them in terms of impact effectiveness: to give some parameters that characterize Russian model, outlining legislative and organizational innovations in its public administration. Methods The article is based on the data-driven approach, which allows you to compare measures applied by governments of different countries, including Russia. Findings & Value added The publication identifies at least four general global trends and some models, reflecting national features in basic technologies. In addition, the article describes the organizational features (governing bodies and the adopted special laws) of Russia.
С.Н., Евстратчик С.В. Применение байесовской модели для оценивания вероятностей альтернатив в условиях неопределѐнности с использованием нечисловой, неточной и неполной экспертной информации. Аннотация. В данной статье рассмотрена ранее изложенная байесовская модель оценки кусочно-постоянной плотности распределения, соответствующая тернарному разбиению диапазона возможных значений исследуемой случайной величины, основанная на оценке параметров распределения Дирихле по нечисловой, неточной и неполной экспертной информации. Анализ проводится для оценки и прогноза статистических характеристик приращений курса швейцарского франка CHF относительно единицы XDR резервного платѐжного средства SDR Международного валютного фонда. Для сравнения качества результата для тех же данных проведены исследования с помощью классического эконометрического метода: построение ARIMA -модели и прогноза методом экспоненциального сглаживания. Ключевые слова: байесовская модель, распределение Дирихле, кусочно-постоянная плотность, метод рандомизированных вероятностей, ARIMA -модель, экспоненциальное сглаживание, тест Дики-Фуллера.Zhuk S.N., Evstratchik S.V. The application of bayesian model for estimation of the probabilities of alternatives under uncertainty with the use of nonnumeric, inaccurate and incomplete expert information. Abstract. In this paper the Bayesian model of estimation of piecewise-constant density corresponding to the decomposition of the ternary range of possible values of the random quantity is considered. The model is based on the estimation of parameters of the Dirichlet distribution for nonnumeric, inaccurate and incomplete information. The analysis is performed for the evaluation and prediction of the statistical characteristics of the CHF with respect to XDR. For comparison the quality of the result for the same data were investigated with the use of classical econometric method: construction of ARIMAmodels and forecasting method of exponential smoothing. Keywords: The Bayesian model, distribution of Dirichlet, piecewise constant function, the method of randomized probability, ARIMAmodel, exponential smoothing, the Dickey Fuller test.
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