This article presents the analysis of current scientific understanding of the term «risk» along with theoretical justification of its use in epidemiological studies. Epidemiology commonly uses definitions such as «risk factor», «group of risk», «risk area», and «risk period». However, these definitions were useful only for specific groups or nosoligical infectious diseases. In Noninfectious Pathology the terms had been used exclusively in the applied studies. There is a lack of publications which compile theoretical basics of such fundamental term category. The authors suggest a definition of epidemiologic «risk» which can be used in the epidemiology of both infectious and noninfectious diseases. It is a probability of negative influence on illness (and/or its impact) of specific groups of general population which is defined by external and/or internal factors in specific times and territories. The authors differentiate types of risk and their evaluation measures into categories for used in applied studies of epidemiology. The relationships and the unity of the basic categories of the epidemiologic risk are discussed. The authors conclude that riskology is the main branch of epidemiology and the category of «risk» is the basic paradigm of this science.
From all group of infectious pathology viral hepatitises, from which the most priority are the parenteral hepatitises B and С, are essential for health of mankind, also the Irkutsk region isn’t an exception.The aim of the study:to assess an epidemiological situation in sharp and chronic forms of the viral hepatitises B and С in the territory of the Irkutsk region for the long-term period.Materials and methods. The retrospective analysis of an epidemiological situation on viral hepatitises B and C in Russia, Siberian Federal District and in the Irkutsk region for 2008–2016 is carried out.Results.The expressed decrease in incidence of acute viral hepatitis B is noted, at a chronic form of this disease rates of decrease had less expressed character that can be connected with carrying out by mass vaccinal prevention. The carried-out ranged distribution of territories for all forms of viral hepatitis B and viral hepatitis C in the Irkutsk region has allowed to reveal territories of risk.Conclusion.Parenteral viral hepatitises (sharp and chronic forms) are widespread in the territory of the Irkutsk region. From 43 administrative territories of the area, 24 belong to unsuccessful on incidences from which five are to territories of high epidemiological risk: cities of Irkutsk, Angarsk and Ust-Ilimsk and also Katangsky and Shelekhovsky districts.
Existing preventive measures have not been entirely efficient. Mainly they are aimed at solving social and economic issues, which demands both time and money. Considering this, it is necessary to find and sustain additional effective measures, based on patterns of development of infectious diseases, which could be more cost-effective. One of such approaches could be based on the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems, which directs epidemiologists to conducting preventive measures before the rise of the number of cases to prevent increase in the agents virulence. Yet this theory does not provide the optimum time for preventive measures. Based on the main statements of the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems and analysis of annual and/or long-term cyclicity, the article provides substantiation of the theory that the lowest level of incidence is the weakest period in its development. Epidemiological experiments, using bacterial dysentery as an example, showed that preventive administration of polyvalent dysenteric bacteriophage in risk groups (children going to preschool institutions) during two months of the lowest incidence level of the disease appeared to be effective. The positive effect took place in the stages of cyclic increase and decrease of long-term trends. The effect appeared in the groups of children and population in general with most marked decline in disease occurrence in its seasonal peak. The hypothesis that the lowest incidence level is directly related to seasonal climbs of the disease was proved by our earlier studies when we investigated influence of technogenic pollution of the environment on annual incidence rate of more than ten most common infectious diseases with different ways of transmission. Thus, the lowest incidence level of infectious diseases defines their future growth and/or decline, and, therefore, it can be used to conduct preventive measures.
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