The established phylogeny of the etiological agent of plague, Yersinia pestis, is not perfect, as it does not take into account the strains from numerous natural foci of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). We have carried out PCR and SNP typing of 359 strains and whole genome sequencing of 51 strains from these plague foci and determined the phylogenetic diversity of the strains circulating here. They belong to 0.ANT3, 0.ANT5, 2.ANT3, 4.ANT branches of antique biovar, 2.MED0, 2.MED1 branches of medieval biovar and to 0.PE2, 0.PE4a. 0.PE4h, 0.PE4t branches. Based on the studies of 178 strains from 23 plague foci of CIS countries, it was determined that the population structure of 2.MED strains is subdivided into Caucasian–Caspian and Central Asian–Chinese branches. In Central-Caucasian high-mountain plague foci in the Russian Federation (RF) the most deeply diverged branch of medieval biovar, 2.MED0, has been found. With the data obtained, the current population structure of Y. pestis species has been refined. New subspecies classification is developed, comprising seven subspecies: pestis, caucasica (0.PE2), angolica (0.PE3), central asiatica (0.PE4), tibetica (0.PE7), ulegeica (0.PE5), and qinghaica (0.PE10).

The aim of the work was to substantiate the forecast of the epidemiological and epizootiological situation in natural foci of plague in the Russian Federation, countries of the near and far abroad for the year of 2021. Characteristics of the distribution of Yersinia pestis strains of the main subspecies (subspecies pestis) of medieval and antique biovars, Caucasian (ssp. caucasica) and central Asian (ssp. central asiatica) subspecies by 45 natural foci of the CIS countries are presented in the paper. The persistence of a multidirectional trend in the dynamics of epizootic activity of natural foci of the CIS countries with the circulation of Y. pestis pestis strains of the medieval biovar of the 2.MED1 phylogenetic branch and the antique biovar of the 0.ANT5, 4.ANT phylogenetic branches in the current decade has been outlined. For the Russian Federation, the development of epizootics is predicted in the Gorno-Altai highland and Tuva mountain natural foci caused by the circulation of Y. pestis pestis strains of the antique biovar 4.ANT and Y. pestis of the Altai biovar of the Central Asian subspecies 0.PE4a in 2021. For the Republic of Kazakhstan, there is a high probability of preserving epizootic activity in the North Aral, Aral-Karakum, Balkhash, Mojynkum, Taukum desert and Ili intermountain natural foci with the circulation of Y. pestis pestis strains of the medieval biovar of the phylogenetic branch 2.MED1. For the Kyrgyz Republic, the forecast for the development of plague epizootics caused by Y. pestis pestis strains of the antique biovar 0.ANT5 phylogenetic branch in the Sarydzhaz and Upper Naryn high-mountain natural foci has been substantiated. A high epidemic risk of epizootic manifestations caused by highly virulent strains of Y. pestis pestis of antique biovars 0.ANT5, 4.ANT and medieval biovar 2.MED1 for the entire territory of the CIS countries is noted. The relevance of implementing forecasts of the epidemiological situation into practice, taking into account the molecular-genetic and epidemiological characteristics of Y. pestis strains circulating in areas of expected epizootic manifestations of plague, is highlighted.

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