Over the past century, many of the world's major rivers have been modified for the purposes of flood mitigation, power generation and commercial navigation. Engineering modifications to the Mississippi River system have altered the river's sediment levels and channel morphology, but the influence of these modifications on flood hazard is debated. Detecting and attributing changes in river discharge is challenging because instrumental streamflow records are often too short to evaluate the range of natural hydrological variability before the establishment of flood mitigation infrastructure. Here we show that multi-decadal trends of flood hazard on the lower Mississippi River are strongly modulated by dynamical modes of climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but that the artificial channelization (confinement to a straightened channel) has greatly amplified flood magnitudes over the past century. Our results, based on a multi-proxy reconstruction of flood frequency and magnitude spanning the past 500 years, reveal that the magnitude of the 100-year flood (a flood with a 1 per cent chance of being exceeded in any year) has increased by 20 per cent over those five centuries, with about 75 per cent of this increase attributed to river engineering. We conclude that the interaction of human alterations to the Mississippi River system with dynamical modes of climate variability has elevated the current flood hazard to levels that are unprecedented within the past five centuries.
The common view that frequent overbank flooding leads to gradual aggradation of alluvial strata on floodplains and delta plains has been challenged by a variety of studies that suggest that overbank aggradation occurs in a strongly episodic fashion. However, this remains a largely untested hypothesis due to the difficulty in establishing age models with sufficiently high resolution. Here we use 39 optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages from proximal overbank deposits in the Mississippi Delta to demonstrate for the first time that alluvial aggradation over centennial to millennial time scales is predominantly episodic, with aggradation rates of 1-4 cm/yr that can persist for centuries. OSL ages from three separate study areas produce age clusters that are distinctly different yet complement each other. These findings suggest that a substantial portion of the continental stratigraphic record consists of patchworks of relatively discrete, centennial-to millennial-scale sediment bodies assembled by autogenic processes.
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