The world's population living on low-lying deltas is increasingly vulnerable to flooding, whether from intense rainfall, rivers or from hurricane-induced storm surges. High-resolution SRTM and MODIS satellite data along with geo-referenced historical map analysis allows quantification of the extent of low-lying delta areas and the role of humans in contributing to their vulnerability. Thirty-three major deltas collectively include ~26,000 km 2 of area below local mean sea level and ~96,000 km 2 of vulnerable area below 2 m a.s.l. The vulnerable areas may increase by 50% under projected 21st Century eustatic sea level rise, a conservative estimate given the current trends in the reduction in sedimentary deposits forming on the surface of these deltas. Analysis of river sediment load and delta topographical data show that these densely populated, intensively farmed landforms, that often host key economic structures, have been destabilized by human-induced accelerated sediment compaction from water, oil and gas mining, by reduction of incoming sediment from upstream dams and reservoirs, and from floodplain engineering. IntroductionClose to 0.5 billion people live on, or near, world deltas, inclusively in many mega-cities (1, 2). Ten countries (China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Egypt, USA, Thailand, and the Philippines) account for 73% of the people that live in the world's coastal zone, defined as within 10 m a.s.l. (3). 20 th -century catchment developments and population and economic growth within subsiding deltas have placed these environments and their populations under a growing risk of coastal flooding, wetland loss, shoreline retreat, and loss of infrastructure (4, 5). It is estimated that more than 10 million people per year experience flooding due to storm surges, and most of these people are living on Asian deltas (6). Using new, globally-consistent and highresolution topographic data, three hypotheses are tested: 1) deltas are rapidly sinking, often to below local sea level, 2) the lack of sediment getting to delta floodplains is the main reason so many deltas are sinking, and 3) human activities are largely responsible for the present vulnerability of deltas. For a representative suite of deltas, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data are applied to evaluate delta topography, in relation to mean sea level. Historical maps are geo-referenced against detailed topographic data to map morphodynamic patterns and quantify how rivers once flowed through deltas. Visible and near-infrared Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images are used to assess flooding in modern deltas and investigate whether such flooding is mainly from river runoff or instead from coastal storm surges, and whether present river suspended load is sufficient to maintain delta plain aggradation and stability.

A process-based facies model for asymmetric wave-influenced deltas predicts significant river-borne muds with potentially lower quality reservoir facies in prodelta and downdrift areas, and better quality sand in updrift areas. Many ancient barrier-lagoon systems and 'offshore bars' may be better reinterpreted as components of large-scale asymmetric wave-influenced deltaic systems. The proposed model is based on a re-evaluation of several modern examples. An asymmetry index A is defined as the ratio between the net longshore transport rate at the mouth (in m 3 year) and river discharge (in 10 6 m 3 month )1 ).Symmetry is favoured in deltas with an index below 200 (e.g. Tiber, lobes of the Godavari delta, Rosetta lobe of the Nile, Ebro), whereas deltas with a higher index are asymmetric (e.g. Danube -Sf. Gheorghe lobe, Brazos, Damietta lobe of the Nile). Periodic deflection of the river mouth for significant distances in the downdrift direction occurs in extreme cases of littoral drift dominance (e.g. Mahanadi), resulting in a series of randomly distributed, quasi-parallel series of sand spits and channel fills. Asymmetric deltas show variable proportions of river-, wave-and tide-dominated facies both among and within their lobes. Bayhead deltas, lagoons and barrier islands form naturally in prograding asymmetric deltas and are not necessarily associated with transgressive systems. This complexity underlines the necessity of interpreting ancient depositional systems in a larger palaeogeographic context.

No abstract

The collapse of the Bronze Age Harappan, one of the earliest urban civilizations, remains an enigma. Urbanism flourished in the western region of the Indo-Gangetic Plain for approximately 600 y, but since approximately 3,900 y ago, the total settled area and settlement sizes declined, many sites were abandoned, and a significant shift in site numbers and density towards the east is recorded. We report morphologic and chronologic evidence indicating that fluvial landscapes in Harappan territory became remarkably stable during the late Holocene as aridification intensified in the region after approximately 5,000 BP. Upstream on the alluvial plain, the large Himalayan rivers in Punjab stopped incising, while downstream, sedimentation slowed on the distinctive mega-fluvial ridge, which the Indus built in Sindh. This fluvial quiescence suggests a gradual decrease in flood intensity that probably stimulated intensive agriculture initially and encouraged urbanization around 4,500 BP. However, further decline in monsoon precipitation led to conditions adverse to both inundation-and rain-based farming. Contrary to earlier assumptions that a large glacier-fed Himalayan river, identified by some with the mythical Sarasvati, watered the Harappan heartland on the interfluve between the Indus and Ganges basins, we show that only monsoonal-fed rivers were active there during the Holocene. As the monsoon weakened, monsoonal rivers gradually dried or became seasonal, affecting habitability along their courses. Hydroclimatic stress increased the vulnerability of agricultural production supporting Harappan urbanism, leading to settlement downsizing, diversification of crops, and a drastic increase in settlements in the moister monsoon regions of the upper Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh.Indus Valley | floods | droughts | climate change | archaeology T he Harappan or Indus Civilization (1-8) developed at the arid outer edge of the monsoonal rain belt (9, Fig. 1) and largely depended on river water for agriculture (10). The Harappans settled the Indus plain over a territory larger than the contemporary extent of Egypt and Mesopotamia combined (Figs. 2 and 3). Between the Indus and Ganges watersheds, a now largely defunct smaller drainage system, the Ghaggar-Hakra, was also heavily populated during Harappan times (4, 5). Controlled by the Indian monsoon and the melting of Himalayan snow and glaciers (2,11,12), the highly variable hydrologic regime, with recurring droughts and floods, must have been a critical concern for Harappans, as it is today for almost a billion people living on the Indo-Gangetic Plain in Pakistan, northern India, and Bangladesh. In such challenging environmental conditions, both the development and the decline of the Harappan remain equally puzzling (13). We investigate how climate change affected this civilization by focusing on fluvial morphodynamics, which constitutes a critical gap in our current understanding of the Harappan in the way it affects habitability and human settlement patterns near rivers in...

Spanning a latitudinal range typical for deserts, the Indian peninsula is fertile instead and sustains over a billion people through monsoonal rains. Despite the strong link between climate and society, our knowledge of the long‐term monsoon variability is incomplete over the Indian subcontinent. Here we reconstruct the Holocene paleoclimate in the core monsoon zone (CMZ) of the Indian peninsula using a sediment core recovered offshore from the mouth of Godavari River. Carbon isotopes of sedimentary leaf waxes provide an integrated and regionally extensive record of the flora in the CMZ and document a gradual increase in aridity‐adapted vegetation from ∼4,000 until 1,700 years ago followed by the persistence of aridity‐adapted plants after that. The oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminiferGlobigerinoides ruberdetects unprecedented high salinity events in the Bay of Bengal over the last 3,000 years, and especially after 1,700 years ago, which suggest that the CMZ aridification intensified in the late Holocene through a series of sub‐millennial dry episodes. Cultural changes occurred across the Indian subcontinent as the climate became more arid after ∼4,000 years. Sedentary agriculture took hold in the drying central and south India, while the urban Harappan civilization collapsed in the already arid Indus basin. The establishment of a more variable hydroclimate over the last ca. 1,700 years may have led to the rapid proliferation of water‐conservation technology in south India.

Marine algae are instrumental in carbon cycling and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) regulation. One group, coccolithophores, uses carbon to photosynthesize and to calcify, covering their cells with chalk platelets (coccoliths). How ocean acidification influences coccolithophore calcification is strongly debated, and the effects of carbonate chemistry changes in the geological past are poorly understood. This paper relates degree of coccolith calcification to cellular calcification, and presents the first records of size-normalized coccolith thickness spanning the last 14 Myr from tropical oceans. Degree of calcification was highest in the low-pH, high-CO2 Miocene ocean, but decreased significantly between 6 and 4 Myr ago. Based on this and concurrent trends in a new alkenone ɛp record, we propose that decreasing CO2 partly drove the observed trend via reduced cellular bicarbonate allocation to calcification. This trend reversed in the late Pleistocene despite low CO2, suggesting an additional regulator of calcification such as alkalinity.

Climate is one of the principal controls setting rates of continental erosion. Here we present the results of a provenance analysis of Holocene sediments from the Indus delta in order to assess climatic controls on erosion over millennial time scales. Bulk sediment Nd isotope analysis reveals a number of changes during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene (at 14-20, 11-12 and 8-9 ka) away from erosion of the Karakoram and toward more sediment fl ux from the Himalaya. Radiometric Ar-Ar dating of muscovite and U-Pb dating of zircon sand grains indicate that the Lesser Himalaya eroded relatively more strongly than the Greater Himalaya as global climate warmed and the summer monsoon intensifi ed after 14 ka. Monsoon rains appear to be the primary force controlling erosion across the western Himalaya, at least over millennial time scales. This variation is preserved with no apparent lag in sediments from the delta, but not in the deep Arabian Sea, due to sediment buffering on the continental shelf. RESULTSIn contrast to the ~1 ε Nd unit shift seen between modern and glacial sediments in the Bengal Fan (Colin et al., 1999), we use a moving average plot (Fig. 2B) to show that ε Nd changed from ~11 to ~12 between sedi-

Over the past century, many of the world's major rivers have been modified for the purposes of flood mitigation, power generation and commercial navigation. Engineering modifications to the Mississippi River system have altered the river's sediment levels and channel morphology, but the influence of these modifications on flood hazard is debated. Detecting and attributing changes in river discharge is challenging because instrumental streamflow records are often too short to evaluate the range of natural hydrological variability before the establishment of flood mitigation infrastructure. Here we show that multi-decadal trends of flood hazard on the lower Mississippi River are strongly modulated by dynamical modes of climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but that the artificial channelization (confinement to a straightened channel) has greatly amplified flood magnitudes over the past century. Our results, based on a multi-proxy reconstruction of flood frequency and magnitude spanning the past 500 years, reveal that the magnitude of the 100-year flood (a flood with a 1 per cent chance of being exceeded in any year) has increased by 20 per cent over those five centuries, with about 75 per cent of this increase attributed to river engineering. We conclude that the interaction of human alterations to the Mississippi River system with dynamical modes of climate variability has elevated the current flood hazard to levels that are unprecedented within the past five centuries.