Summary Fluvial landforms and deposits provide one of the most readily studied Quaternary continental records, and alluvial strata represent an important component in most ancient continental interior and continental margin successions. Moreover, studies of the long‐term dynamics of fluvial systems and their responses to external or ‘allogenic' controls, can play important roles in research concerning both global change and sequence‐stratigraphy, as well as in studies of the dynamic interactions between tectonic activity and surface processes. These themes were energized in the final decades of the twentieth century, and may become increasingly important in the first decades of this millennium. This review paper provides a historical perspective on the development of ideas in the fields of geomorphology/Quaternary geology vs. sedimentary geology, and then summarizes key processes that operate to produce alluvial stratigraphic records over time‐scales of 103−106 years. Of particular interest are changes in discharge regimes, sediment supply and sediment storage en route from source terrains to sedimentary basins, as well as changes in sea‐level and the concept of accommodation. Late Quaternary stratigraphic records from the Loire (France), Mississippi (USA), Colorado (Texas, USA) and Rhine–Meuse (The Netherlands) Rivers are used to illustrate the influences of climate change on continental interior rivers, as well as the influence of interacting climate and sea‐level change on continental margin systems. The paper concludes with a look forward to a bright future for studies of fluvial response to climate and sea‐level change. At present, empirical field‐based research on fluvial response to climate and sea‐level change lags behind: (a) the global change community's understanding of the magnitude and frequency of climate and sea‐level change; (b) the sequence‐stratigraphic community's desire to interpret climate and, especially, sea‐level change as forcing mechanisms; and (c) the modelling community's ability to generate numerical and physical models of surface processes and their stratigraphic results. A major challenge for the future is to catch up, which will require the development of more detailed and sophisticated Quaternary stratigraphic, sedimentological and geochronological frameworks in a variety of continental interior and continental margin settings. There is a particular need for studies that seek to document fluvial responses to allogenic forcing over both shorter (102−103 years) and longer (104−106 years) time‐scales than has commonly been the case to date, as well as in larger river systems, from source to sink. Studies of Quaternary systems in depositional basin settings are especially critical because they can provide realistic analogues for interpretation of the pre‐Quaternary rock record.

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River deltas rank among the most economically and ecologically valuable environments on Earth. Even in the absence of sea-level rise, deltas are increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards as declining sediment supply and climate change alter their sediment budget, affecting delta morphology and possibly leading to erosion 1-3 . However, the relationship between deltaic sediment budgets, oceanographic forces of waves and tides, and delta morphology has remained poorly quantified. Here we show how the morphology of about 11,000 coastal deltas worldwide, ranging from small bayhead deltas to mega-deltas, has been affected by river damming and deforestation. We introduce a model that shows that present-day delta morphology varies across a continuum between wave (about 80 per cent), tide (around 10 per cent) and river (about 10 per cent) dominance, but that most large deltas are tide-and river-dominated. Over the past 30 years, despite sea-level rise, deltas globally have experienced a net land gain of 54 ± 12 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations), with the largest 1 per cent of deltas being responsible for 30 per cent of all net land area gains. Humans are a considerable driver of these net land gains-25 per cent of delta growth can be attributed to deforestation-induced increases in fluvial sediment supply. Yet for nearly 1,000 deltas, river damming 4 has resulted in a severe (more than 50 per cent) reduction in anthropogenic sediment flux, forcing a collective loss of 12 ± 3.5 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations) of deltaic land. Not all deltas lose land in response to river damming: deltas transitioning towards tide dominance are currently gaining land, probably through channel infilling. With expected accelerated sea-level rise 5 , however, recent land gains are unlikely to be sustained throughout the twenty-first century. Understanding the redistribution of sediments by waves and tides will be critical for successfully predicting human-driven change to deltas, both locally and globally. A new model for delta changeOn the basis of two recent quantitative studies 12,13 , we here introduce a ternary diagram that allows prognosis of delta morphology and morphologic change using sediment fluxes (Fig. 1a). We apply this approach on a global scale. First, we predict delta morphology for conditions that resemble a world without substantial human impact on the fluvial sediment supply. Next, we compare these predictions to the delta morphology that is expected on the basis of recent modifications to sediment fluxes due to both deforestation and river damming.

Coastal Louisiana has lost about 5,000 km2 of wetlands over the past century and concern exists whether remaining wetlands will persist while facing some of the world's highest rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we analyse an unprecedented data set derived from 274 rod surface-elevation table-marker horizon stations, to determine present-day surface-elevation change, vertical accretion and shallow subsidence rates. Comparison of vertical accretion rates with RSLR rates at the land surface (present-day RSLR rates are 12±8 mm per year) shows that 65% of wetlands in the Mississippi Delta (SE Louisiana) may keep pace with RSLR, whereas 58% of the sites in the Chenier Plain (SW Louisiana) do not, rendering much of this area highly vulnerable to RLSR. At least 60% of the total subsidence rate occurs within the uppermost 5–10 m, which may account for the higher vulnerability of coastal Louisiana wetlands compared to their counterparts elsewhere.

Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) curves for the U.S. Gulf Coast are in mutual confl ict, with some characterized by a smooth RSL rise akin to widely accepted eustatic sea-level curves versus others, including several recent ones, that are characterized by a conspicuous "stair-step" pattern with prolonged (millennium-scale) RSL stillstands alternating with rapid (meterscale) rises. In addition, recent work in Texas and Alabama has revitalized the notion of a middle Holocene RSL highstand, estimated at 2 m above present mean sea level. An extensive sampling program in the Mississippi Delta (Louisiana) focused on the collection of basal peats that accumulated during the initial transgression of the pre-existing, consolidated Pleistocene basement. We used stable carbon isotope ratios to demonstrate that many of these samples accumulated in environments affected by frequent saltwater intrusion in the <30 cm zone between mean spring high water and mean sea level, and we selected plant macrofossils that were subjected to AMS 14 C dating. Nearly 30 sea-level index points from a ~20 km 2 study area on the eastern margin of the delta suggest that RSL rise followed a relatively smooth trend for the time interval 8000-3000 cal yr B.P., thus questioning the occurrence of major RSL stillstands alternating with abrupt rises. Given the narrow error envelope defi ned by our data set, any sea-level fl uctuations, if present, would have amplitudes of <1 m. Although a true middle Holocene highstand never occurred in the Mississippi Delta, the high level of detail of our time series enables a rigorous test of this hypothesis. Correction of our data set for a hypothetical tectonic subsidence rate of 1.1 mm yr-1 (assuming a constant subsidence rate compared to the tectonically relatively stable adjacent coast of Texas) leads to sea levels near 2 m above present during the time interval 6000-4000 cal yr B.P. However, this model also implies a RSL position near-2 m around 8000 cal yr B.P., which is inconsistent both with data of this age from Texas, as well as with widely accepted sea-level data from elsewhere. We therefore conclude that a middle Holocene highstand for the U.S. Gulf Coast is highly unlikely, and that the entire area is still responding glacio-isostatically, by means of forebulge collapse, to the melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

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Accurate estimates of global sea-level rise in the pre-satellite era provide a context for 21 st century sea-level predictions, but the use of tide-gauge records is complicated by the contributions from changes in land level due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We have constructed a rigorous quality-controlled database of late Holocene sea-level indices from the U.S. Atlantic coast, exhibiting subsidence rates of <0.8 mm a -1 in Maine, increasing to rates of 1.7 mm a -1 in Delaware, and a return to rates <0.9 mm a -1 in the Carolinas. This pattern can be attributed to ongoing GIA due to the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Our data allow us to defi ne the geometry of the associated collapsing proglacial forebulge with a level of resolution unmatched by any other currently available method. The corresponding rates of relative sea-level rise serve as background rates on which future sea-level rise must be superimposed. We further employ the geological data to remove the GIA component from tide-gauge records to estimate a mean 20 th century sea-level rise rate for the U.S. Atlantic coast of 1.8 ± 0.2 mm a -1 , similar to the global average. However, we fi nd a distinct spatial trend in the rate of 20 th century sea-level rise, increasing from Maine to South Carolina. This is the fi rst evidence of this phenomenon from observational data alone. We suggest this may be related to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and/or ocean steric effects.

River avulsions are commonly considered to be driven by the aggradation and growth of alluvial ridges, and the associated increase in cross‐valley slope relative to either the down‐channel slope or the down‐valley slope (the latter is termed the slope ratio in the present paper). Therefore, spatial patterns of overbank aggradation rate over stratigraphically relevant time scales are critical in avulsion‐dominated models of alluvial architecture. Detailed evidence on centennial‐ to millennial‐scale floodplain deposition has, to date, been largely unavailable. New data on such long‐term overbank aggradation rates from the Rhine–Meuse and Mississippi deltas demonstrate that the rate of decrease of overbank deposition away from the channel belt is much larger than has been supposed hitherto, and can be similar to observations for single overbank floods. This leads to more rapid growth of alluvial ridges and more rapid increase in slope ratios, potentially resulting in increased avulsion frequencies. A revised input parameter for overbank aggradation rate was used in a three‐dimensional model of alluvial architecture to study its effect on avulsion frequency. Realistic patterns of avulsion and interavulsion periods (≈1000 years) were simulated with input data from the Holocene Rhine River, with avulsions occurring when the slope ratio is in the range 3–5. However, caution should be practised with respect to uncritical use of these numbers in different settings. Evidence from the two study areas suggests that the avulsion threshold cannot be represented by one single value, irrespective of whether critical slope ratios are used, as in the present study, or superelevation as has been proposed by other investigators.