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Over the last few years, there has been a growing international recognition that the security performance of the maritime industry needs to be reviewed on an urgent basis. A large number of optional maritime security control measures have been proposed through various regulations and publications in the post-9/11 era. There is a strong need for a sound and generic methodology, which is capable of taking into account multiple selection criteria such as the cost effectiveness of the measures based on reasonable security assessment. The use of traditional risk assessment and decision-making approaches to deal with potential terrorism threats in a maritime security area reveals two major challenges. They are lack of capability of analyzing security in situations of high-level uncertainty and lack of capability of processing diverse data in a utility form suitable as input to a risk inference mechanism. To deal with such difficulties, this article proposes a subjective security-based assessment and management framework using fuzzy evidential reasoning (ER) approaches. Consequently, the framework can be used to assemble and process subjective risk assessment information on different aspects of a maritime transport system from multiple experts in a systematic way. Outputs of this model can also provide decisionmakers with a transparent tool to evaluate maritime security policy options for a specific scenario in a cost-effective manner.

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No abstract

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The version presented here may differ from the published version or from the version of the record. Please see the repository URL above for details on accessing the published version and note that access may require a subscription.

An integrated fuzzy risk assessment for seaport operations http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/1787/ Article LJMU has developed LJMU Research Online for users to access the research output of the University more effectively.Abstract Seaport operations are characterised by high levels of uncertainty, as a result their risk evaluation is a very challenging task. Much of the available data associated with the system's operations is uncertain and ambiguous, requiring a flexible yet robust approach of handling both quantitative and qualitative data as well as a means of updating existing information as new data becomes available. Conventional risk modelling approaches are considered to be inadequate due to the lack of flexibility and inappropriate structure for addressing the system's risks. This paper proposes a novel fuzzy risk assessment approach to facilitating the treatment of uncertainties in seaport operations and to optimize its performance effectiveness in a systematic manner. The methodology consists of a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, an evidential reasoning (ER) approach, fuzzy set theory and expected utility. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is used to analyse the complex structure of seaport operations and determine the weights of risk factors while ER is used to synthesise them. The methodology provides a robust mathematical framework for collaborative modelling of the system and allows for a step by step analysis of the system in a systematic manner. It is envisaged that the proposed approach could provide managers and infrastructure analysts a flexible tool to enhance the resilience of the system in a systematic manner. Keywords: Seaport operations; evidential reasoning approach; fuzzy set theory; fuzzy analytical hierarchy process 2. Literature Review CMI systems are faced with high operational constraints due to the dynamic interactions among their interrelated components. The level of interdependences and complexity of the system's operations can be acknowledged through its description by the US Department of Homeland Security "as all areas and things of, on, under, relating to, adjacent to, or bordering on a sea, ocean, or other navigable waterway, including all maritime related activities, infrastructure, people, cargo, vessels and other conveyances" [8]. Analysing the systems in terms of their interdependences which include infrastructure characteristics, operational relationships, environmental impacts, technical efficiency, failure types and state of operation provides insight into their complexity, enabling collaborative modelling to be undertaken. Modern seaports, which are an integral component of CMI systems, focus their operations on continuous handling of flows and efficient transport. Meersman [9], as shown in Figure 1, revealed that these systems progressed from performing cargo handling, stacking and distribution functions to being a complex transportation hub in logistic chains. A vessel operator controls a fleet of vessels with a set of characteristics; the land si...