An integrated fuzzy risk assessment for seaport operations

John, Andrew; Paraskevadakis, Dimitrios; Bury, Alan; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Wang, Jin

doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2014.04.001

Cited by 107 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(48 reference statements)

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“…The paired comparison criterion in fuzzy AHP methods was performed by applying the fuzzy scale with triangular fuzzy numbers; see Table 8 [93][94][95][96]. For the comparison in pairs of the traditional AHP method, the classic Saaty scale is used, in Table 8 [86].…”

Section: Gis-mcdamentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of GIS-Interval Rough AHP Methodology for Flood Hazard Mapping in Urban Areas

Gigović

Pamučar

Bajić

et al. 2017

Water

205

116

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Abstract:Floods are natural disasters with significant socio-economic consequences. Urban areas with uncontrolled urban development, rapid population growth, an unregulated municipal system and an unplanned change of land use belong to the highly sensitive areas where floods cause devastating economic and social losses. The aim of this paper is to present a reliable GIS multi-criteria methodology for hazard zones' mapping of flood-prone areas in urban areas. The proposed methodology is based on the combined application of geographical information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The methodology considers six factors that are relevant to the hazard of flooding in urban areas: the height, slope, distance to the sewage network, the distance from the water surface, the water table and land use. The expert evaluation takes into account the nature and severity of observed criteria, and it is tested using three scenarios: the modalities of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The first of them uses a new approach to the exploitation of uncertainty in the application of the AHP technique, the interval rough numbers (IR'AHP). The second one uses the fuzzy technique for the exploitation of uncertainty with the AHP method (F'AHP), and the third scenario contemplates the use of the traditional (crisp) AHP method. The proposed methodology is demonstrated in Palilula Municipality, Belgrade, Serbia. In the last few decades, Palilula Municipality has been repeatedly devastated by extreme flood events. These floods severely affected the transportation networks and other infrastructure. Historical flood inundation data have been used in the validation process. The final urban flood hazard map proves a satisfactory agreement between the flood hazard zones and the spatial distribution of historical floods that happened in the last 58 years. The results indicate that the scenario in which the IR'AHP methodology is used provides the highest level of compatibility with historical data on floods. The produced map showed that the areas of very high flood hazard are located on the left Danube River bank. These areas are characterized by lowland morphology, gentle slope, sewage network, expansion of impermeable locations and intense urbanization. The proposed GIS-IR'AHP methodology and the results of this study provide a good basis for developing a system of flood hazard management in urban areas and can be successfully used for spatial city development policy.

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Section: Gis-mcdamentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of GIS-Interval Rough AHP Methodology for Flood Hazard Mapping in Urban Areas

Gigović

Pamučar

Bajić

et al. 2017

Water

205

116

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“…For this study, a fuzzy membership function based on a five‐point scale adapted from John et al. () is employed to transform the linguistic assessment of sustainability risks into triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) with a uniform distribution (Table , Fig. ).…”

Section: An Integrated Methods Using Fera and Expected Utility Theory mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, suppose that the nonnormalized unassigned belief degree remaining after the assignment of belief to the five risk expressions as a result of the aggregation of assessments provided by the expert 1 and 2 is represented by

S_{U}^{'}

. Then the recursive ER algorithm can be described as follows (John et al., ):

\begin{matrix} true \\ right α^{n^{'}} & = & left normalK false(M_{1}^{n} M_{2}^{n} + M_{1}^{n} S_{2} + M_{2}^{n} S_{1} false) \\ right {\underset{̲}{S}}_{U}^{'} & = & left normalK ({\underset{̲}{S}}_{1} {\underset{̲}{S}}_{2}) {\tilde{S}}_{U}^{'} = normalK ({\overset{S}{true}}_{1} {\overset{S}{true}}_{2} + {\overset{S}{true}}_{1} {normalS}_{2} + {normalS}_{1} {\overset{S}{true}}_{2}), \end{matrix}

K = {([] 1 - \sum_{j = 1}^{5} \sum_{l = 1 l \neq j}^{5} M_{1}^{j} M_{2}^{l})}^{- 1} .

…”

Section: An Integrated Methods Using Fera and Expected Utility Theory mentioning

confidence: 99%

An Integrated Approach for Modeling Sustainability Risks in Freight Transportation Systems

2019

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Integrating sustainability into freight transportation systems (FTSs) is a complex and challenging task due to the sheer number of inherent sustainability risks. Sustainability risks disrupt the economic, social and environmental objectives of freight operations and act as impediments in the development of sustainable freight transportation systems. The area of sustainability risk management is still unexplored and immature in the operational research domain. This study addresses these research gaps and contributes in a threefold manner. First, a total of 36 potential sustainability risks related to FTSs are identified and uniquely classified into seven categories using a rigourous approach. Second, the research proposes two prominent perspectives, namely, ontological and epistemological perspectives to understand risks and develops a novel framework for managing sustainability risks in FTSs. Third, a novel approach by integrating fuzzy evidential reasoning algorithm (FERA) with expected utility theory is developed to quantitatively model and profile sustainability risk for different risk preferences, namely, risk-averse, risk-neutral, and risk-taking scenarios. The proposed FERA is a flexible and robust approach, which transforms the experts' inputs into belief structures and aggregates them using the evidence combination rule proposed in Dempster-Shafer theory to overcome the problem of imprecise results caused by average scoring in existing models. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed model. Unlike conventional perception, our study suggests that most of the high priority sustainability risks are behaviorally and socially induced rather than financially driven. The results provide significant managerial implications including a focus on skills development, and on social and behavioral dimensions while managing risks in FTSs.

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“…Lately, economics, geography and operations research including risk management (John et al, 2014) have dominated seaport research. The impact of multidisciplinarity and interdisciplinarity has significantly increased, and management studies have also substantially increased since the 2000s (Woo et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impact of multidisciplinarity and interdisciplinarity has significantly increased, and management studies have also substantially increased since the 2000s (Woo et al, 2011). Seaport operations may be described with many uncertainties, so lately there have been many papers that deal with risk management models (John et al, 2014) and metrics, proposed and numerically implemented to assess the overall performance of large systems, during natural disasters and their recovery and resilience (Shafieezadeh and Burden, 2014). This is due to the fact that much of the available data associated with port operations require a flexible but robust approach to the handling and updating of existing information with new data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The evaluation and enhancement of quality, environmental protection and seaport safety by using FAHP

Tadić

Aleksić

Popović³

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The evaluation and enhancement of business processes in any organization in an uncertain environment presents one of the main requirements of ISO 9000:2008 and has a key effect on competitive advantage and long-term sustainability. The aim of this paper can be defined as the identification and discussion of some of the most important business processes of seaports and the performances of business processes and their key performance indicators (KPIs). The complexity and importance of the treated problem call for analytic methods rather than intuitive decisions. The existing decision variables of the considered problem are described by linguistic expressions which are modelled by triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). In this paper, the modified fuzzy extended analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is proposed. The assessment of the relative importance of each pair of performances and their key performance indicators are stated as a fuzzy group decision-making problem. By using the modified fuzzy extended analytic hierarchy process, the fuzzy rank of business processes of a seaport is obtained. The model is tested through an illustrative example with real-life data, where the obtained data suggest measures which should enhance business strategy and improve key performance indicators. The future improvement is based on benchmark and knowledge sharing.

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An integrated fuzzy risk assessment for seaport operations

Cited by 107 publications

References 41 publications

Application of GIS-Interval Rough AHP Methodology for Flood Hazard Mapping in Urban Areas

Application of GIS-Interval Rough AHP Methodology for Flood Hazard Mapping in Urban Areas

An Integrated Approach for Modeling Sustainability Risks in Freight Transportation Systems

The evaluation and enhancement of quality, environmental protection and seaport safety by using FAHP

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