Based on the comprehensive analysis of the existing major ship collision probability models, this paper combined the advantages of the AASHTO model and the KUNZI model and improved AASHTO model by using the ship simulator to obtain the ship’s track probability distribution curve to replace the original geometric probability distribution curve. It also introduced ship stopping probability function to make up for the shortcomings of the AASHTO model in which the influence of human factors is not considered. Finally, this paper predicts the collision probability of the Longjiang Bridge in 2025 with the improved model.
To deal with the problem of ship navigation under the ultra-small section coefficient of navigable tunnels of high dam navigation structures, a large-scale hydraulic physical model combined with a self-propelled ship model was used to study the characteristics of the unsteady flow of the tunnel discharge and the navigation parameters of ships at different speeds. This paper analysed the influence of the ship lock discharge on the tunnel water level fluctuation and flow velocity, proposed parameters such as the size of the navigable tunnel for 1,000-ton ships, the recommended speed and the amount of ship sinking, which provide references for the design of navigable tunnels for high-grade waterways.
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