Study queStionWhat is the association between clarithromycin use and cardiovascular outcomes? MethodSIn this population based study the authors compared cardiovascular outcomes in adults aged 18 or more receiving oral clarithromycin or amoxicillin during 2005-09 in Hong Kong. Based on age within five years, sex, and calendar year at use, each clarithromycin user was matched to one or two amoxicillin users. The cohort analysis included patients who received clarithromycin (n=108 988) or amoxicillin (n=217 793). The self controlled case series and case crossover analysis included those who received Helicobacter pylori eradication treatment containing clarithromycin. The primary outcome was myocardial infarction. Secondary outcomes were all cause, cardiac, or non-cardiac mortality, arrhythmia, and stroke. Study anSwer and liMitationSThe propensity score adjusted rate ratio of myocardial infarction 14 days after the start of antibiotic treatment was 3.66 (95% confidence interval 2.82 to 4.76) comparing clarithromycin use (132 events, rate 44.4 per 1000 person years) with amoxicillin use (149 events, 19.2 per 1000 person years), but no long term increased risk was observed. Similarly, rate ratios of secondary outcomes increased significantly only with current use of clarithromycin versus amoxicillin, except for stroke. In the self controlled case analysis, there was an association between current use of H pylori eradication treatment containing clarithromycin and cardiovascular events. The risk returned to baseline after treatment had ended. The case crossover analysis also showed an increased risk of cardiovascular events during current use of H pylori eradication treatment containing clarithromycin. The adjusted absolute risk difference for current use of clarithromycin versus amoxicillin was 1.90 excess myocardial infarction events (95% confidence interval 1.30 to 2.68) per 1000 patients.what thiS Study addS Current use of clarithromycin was associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction, arrhythmia, and cardiac mortality short term but no association with long term cardiovascular risks among the Hong Kong population.

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The self-controlled case-series method was originally developed to investigate potential associations between vaccines and adverse events, and is now commonly used for this purpose. This study reviews applications of the method to vaccine safety investigations in the period 1995-2010. In total, 40 studies were reviewed. The application of the self-controlled case-series method in these studies is critically examined, with particular reference to the definition of observation and risk periods, control of confounders, assumptions and potential biases, methodological and presentation issues, power and sample size, and software. Comparisons with other study designs undertaken in the papers reviewed are also highlighted. Some recommendations are presented, with the emphasis on promoting good practice.

We propose a modified self-controlled case series (SCCS) method to handle both event-dependent exposures and high event-related mortality. This development is motivated by an epidemiological study undertaken in France to quantify potential risks of cardiovascular events associated with COVID-19 vaccines.Event-dependence of vaccinations, and high event-related mortality, are likely to arise in other SCCS studies of COVID-19 vaccine safety. Using this case study and simulations to broaden its scope, we explore these features and the biases they may generate, implement the modified SCCS model, illustrate some of the properties of this model, and develop a new test for presence of a dose effect. The model we propose has wider application, notably when the event of interest is death.

Aims/hypothesis The prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is increasing worldwide in all ethnic groups. Low vitamin B12 and low/high folate levels may contribute to GDM risk, but there is conflicting evidence. Our aim is to assess the relationships of early pregnancy vitamin B12 and folate levels with the risk of GDM status at 26–28 weeks of gestation. Methods This was a prospective, multi-centre, multi-ethnic cohort study (n = 4746) in the UK. Participants who were eligible to be selectively screened as per the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) criteria were included in the study. Results GDM prevalence was 12.5% by NICE and 14.7% by International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups (IADPSG) criteria. Folate deficiency (1.3%) was rare but B12 insufficiency (42.3% at <220 pmol/l) and folate excess (36.5%) were common in early pregnancy. Early pregnancy median B12 levels were lower, and folate levels higher, in women who were diagnosed with GDM at 26–28 weeks. B12 was negatively associated with fasting plasma glucose (1 SD: −0.06 mmol/l; 95% CI −0.04, −0.08; p < 0.0001) and 2 h plasma glucose levels (−0.07 mmol/l; 95% CI −0.02, −0.12; p = 0.004). Higher B12 was associated with 14.4% lower RR of IADPSG-GDM (0.856; 95% CI 0.786, 0.933; p = 0.0004) after adjusting for key confounders (age, parity, smoking status, ethnicity, family history, household income and folate status). Approximately half of this association was mediated through BMI. Folate was positively associated with 2 h plasma glucose levels (0.08 mmol/l; 95% CI 0.04, 0.13; p = 0.0005) but its relationship with fasting plasma glucose was U-shaped (quadratic β: 0.011; p = 0.05). Higher folate was associated with 11% higher RR of IADPSG-GDM (adjusted RR 1.11; 95% CI 1.036, 1.182; p = 0.002) (age, parity, smoking status, ethnicity, family history, household income and B12 status). Although no interactions were observed for B12 and folate (as continuous variables) with glucose levels and GDM risk, a low B12–high folate combination was associated with higher blood glucose level and risk of IADPSG-GDM (adjusted RR 1.742; 95% CI 1.226, 2.437; p = 0.003). Conclusions/interpretation B12 insufficiency and folate excess were common in early pregnancy. Low B12 and high folate levels in early pregnancy were associated with small but statistically significant changes in maternal blood glucose level and higher RR of GDM. Our findings warrant additional studies on the role of unmetabolised folic acid in glucose metabolism and investigating the effect of optimising early pregnancy or pre-conception B12 and folate levels on subsequent hyperglycaemia. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03008824. Graphical abstract

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Childhood obesity is a growing epidemic. Early identification of high-risk groups will allow for the development of prevention strategies. Cord blood adipocytokines have been previously examined as biomarkers predicting future obesity. We conducted a systematic review looking at the association between cord blood leptin and adiponectin with adiposity up to 5 years of age. A literature review was performed between January 1994 and August 2020 using two bibliographic databases (Medline/Pubmed and EMBASE) and was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42017069024). Studies using skinfold thickness and direct methods of assessing body composition in full term neonates were considered. Partial correlation and multiple regression models were used to present the results. Meta-analysis was performed, were possible, using a random effects model. Cochran’s Q test was used to assess heterogeneity and I2 statistics to calculate the percentage of variation across studies. The potential for publication bias was assessed using funnel plots. Data from 22 studies were retrieved and reviewed by two independent reviewers. Cord blood leptin was positively associated with adiposity at birth (r = 0.487; 95% CI: 0.444, 0.531) but was inversely related to adiposity up to 3 years of age. The association was not sustained at 5 years. There was a weak positive association between adiponectin in cord blood and adiposity at birth (r = 0.201; 95% CI: 0.125, 0.277). No correlation was found between cord blood adiponectin in young children, but data were limited. This review supports that cord blood leptin and adiponectin are associated with adiposity at birth. The results of this study provide insight into the role of adipocytokines at birth on future metabolic health and their potential use as risk stratification tools.

We describe some simple techniques for investigating 2 key assumptions of the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method, namely, that events do not influence subsequent exposures and that events do not influence the length of observation periods. For each assumption, we propose some simple tests based on the standard SCCS model, along with associated graphical displays. The methods also enable the user to investigate the robustness of the results obtained using the standard SCCS model to failure of assumptions. The proposed methods are investigated by simulations and applied to data on measles, mumps and rubella vaccine, and antipsychotics.