In 2020, the cross-border e-commerce industry suffered a setback against the backdrop of the global epidemic. In the context of the global epidemic and economic structural reform and transformation, China has proposed a new economic pattern of “dual circulation” development, and this measure has greatly promoted the development of China’s cross-border e-commerce industry. According to relevant data, the export share of China’s cross-border e-commerce accounted for 77.6% of its market size in 2020. As a result, this paper studies the influence of the “dual circulation” measure on the development of cross-border e-commerce B2B export trade and classifies and analyzes the policies related to the cross-border e-commerce industry in the “dual circulation” measure. Then, a system dynamics model reflecting the lag effect of this measure on cross-border e-commerce B2B export is also constructed, and the effects of different single policies and different policy combinations on cross-border e-commerce B2B export are simulated successively. The modeling process and simulation results demonstrate that: (1) infrastructure investment of cross-border e-commerce is most affected by policy lag, followed by government supervision and enterprise operation, while talent training of cross-border e-commerce and customs supervision are almost not affected by policy lag; (2) tax policy, customs clearance policy, and fiscal policy have greater effects on the promotion of cross-border e-commerce B2B exports, while the payment policy and talent policy have less impact on them; and (3) from the simulation results of policy combination, it can be seen that the regulatory environment (i.e., regulatory policies) is the most important to promote cross-border e-commerce B2B export trade, followed by financial support, customs environment, and business environment. Finally, this paper gives suggestions for the formulation of relevant government policies to promote the development of cross-border e-commerce B2B export trade and provide some reference values for other governments to develop the cross-border e-commerce B2B export trade industry.
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on China’s foreign trade. Therefore, the Chinese government has proposed a “dual cycle” policy to promote economic development. In 2021, China’s cross-border e-commerce B2B exports accounted for 60 percent. Therefore, this paper studies the impact of government actions on the development of cross-border e-commerce B2B export enterprises under the background of “dual cycle” policy. First, the policies related to the cross-border e-commerce industry in the “dual circulation” policy are screened, and the LDA topic model is used to classify them, i.e., sorting by topic intensity as “fiscal policy”, “tax policy”, “customs clearance policy”, “payment policy” and “talent policy”. After that, based on the analysis results of the LDA topic model, a theoretical basis for the impact of different policies on cross-border e-commerce B2B export companies is established; then an evolutionary game model between the government and cross-border e-commerce B2B export enterprises is constructed. This article also carried out experiments to verify our analysis. The simulation results show that: (1) The government’s appropriate increase in subsidies, tax incentives, infrastructure investment, talent introduction and cultivation, optimized payment system, and supervision can promote enterprises to participate in cross-border e-commerce B2B export trading; (2) excessive government supervision reduces enterprises’ enthusiasm to participate in cross-border e-commerce B2B export trading; (3) the government’s subsidies, tax incentives, and supervision strength have the greatest impact on whether enterprises participate in cross-border e-commerce B2B export trading, followed by the government’s investment in cross-border e-commerce infrastructure, the introduction and cultivation of cross-border e-commerce talents, and the improvement of the payment system. Finally, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations to promote the development of cross-border e-commerce B2B export enterprises.
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