This paper proposes methodological approaches to assessing the impact of renewable energy and energy efficiency development on emerging economies’ energy security. It is suggested to supplement the current methodology for assessing energy security with the decoupling index of the renewable energy financial burden on the state budget, the energy efficiency decoupling index, the households’ energy poverty indicator, the index of capacity development for balancing electricity generation volumes, and the energy fluctuations indicator. These indices provide a comprehensive assessment of energy security under the latest challenges. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic in the Ukrainian energy sector led to the “green and coal paradox”, when the government decided to keep green electricity generation but limit nuclear generation. It required increased flexible capacities (thermal generation) and led to a rise in electricity prices and environmental pollution. Forecasting energy fluctuations with Butterworth filters allows minimizing the risks of maximum peak loads on the grid and timely prevention of emergencies. The energy fluctuations within the 20% range guarantee energy security and optimal energy companies’ operation. It is proposed to smooth out energy consumption fluctuations through green energy development, smart grids formation, energy efficiency improvements, and energy capacities balancing to ensure energy and economic sustainability.
This article summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on the laws of developing the theory of energy efficiency management of the national economy. The study’s primary purpose is to develop theoretical and methodological tools for analyzing the patterns of development of the theory of energy efficiency management of the national economy. Systematization of literature sources and approaches to solving the problem of developing the idea of energy efficiency management of the national economy has shown a need to update state energy policies, strategies, regulatory and legal support for the energy sector’s functioning. The urgency of solving this scientific problem is to intensify research on the development of the national economy’s energy efficiency management theory. The research on the laws of development of the theory of energy efficiency management of the national economy in the article is carried out in the following logical sequence: the systematization of literature sources and approaches to study the theory of energy efficiency management of the national economy, bibliometric and trend analysis to further identify basic theoretical principles and stages of energy management theory, the efficiency of the national economy. Methodological tools of the study were methods of logical generalization, comparative analysis and trend and bibliometric analysis – to identify patterns in developing the theory of energy efficiency of the national economy; the study period was chosen from 2000 to 2020. VOSViewer v.1.6.10 toolkit was used for bibliometric analysis, Google Trends for trend analysis. The object of the study is a sample of 48,888 publications and 21,725 search queries for the keywords like energy policy, energy efficiency, sustainable development based on scientometric databases Scopus and Web of Science, as well as Google Trends tools. The article presents the results of trend and bibliometric analysis of the development of energy efficiency management theory of the national economy, which showed that today the relevance and interest in the development of energy efficiency of the national economy is only gaining momentum, primarily due to the transition to a new stage of carbon neutral development.
The article deals with the impacts of economic, ecological, and social development scenarios in ensuring sustainable energy development. EU countries were the statistical bases of the study; the assessment period was from 2000 to 2019. The information bases of the research were the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the European Commission data. Based on the generalized method of moments, the authors investigated the dependence of energy consumption on economic, environmental, and social development factors. The results confirm the positive relationship between renewable energy consumption and GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, and energy depletion. A negative relationship between the consumption of renewable energy, CO2 emissions, and domestic gas emissions was proved. Based on intelligent data analysis methods (methods involving one-dimensional branching CART and agglomeration), countries were clustered depending on the nature of the energy development policy; portraits of these clusters were formalized. The study results can be useful to authorized bodies when determining the most effective mechanisms for forming and implementing sustainable energy development policies.
This paper analyzes various aspects of energy dependency and identifies the hidden factors behind national energy security. Based on a review of the scientific literature, the factors that reduce energy security in the consumption of natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy generation were identified. One such factor is import dependency on energy resources. Import dependency on energy is a crucial characteristic of energy security and can exacerbate the effects of external aggression, non-competitive behavior, and pressure. Given the energy crisis of 2022, most countries around the world have revised their energy security policies to reduce import dependency by diversifying supplies and reducing dependence on Russian energy resources. The factor analysis of energy dependency ratios, 1990-2020, was used to study the energy security of the EU27 countries. The factor analysis was performed for annual indices calculated using the Eurostat database of “Simplified energy balances.” The paper hypothesized the existence of latent relationships between energy security variables for the twenty-seven EU countries. The hypothesis was verified using Bartlett’s sphericity test and Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin criterion. The results of hypothesis testing showed its statistical significance (the p-value < 0.05) and the possibility of factor analysis. Correspondence indices also indicated the adequacy of possible prediction of a set of variables. The factor analysis was executed in Python using the FactorAnalyzer module (the release 0.4.0). The principal factor extraction and the varimax rotation model were used to obtain the initial solution, preserving the orthogonality of the loading matrix. The factor structure of the model was confirmed for four factors consisting of the twenty-eight elements. The received four factors model allowed us to describe around 80% of the cumulative variance. It was found that each factor separately explained 46.89%, 15.80%, 10.91%, and 6.39% of the variance, respectively.
The development of innovation activities is of great importance on the path to achieving the goals of sustainable development. Success on this path is closely related to the presence of comparable information on the development of innovation activities at the regional level. The aim of the paper is to assess the development of innovation activities in the regions of Ukraine and identify differences in results. The study is performed using relative indicators for the assessment of the development of innovation activities in the regions of Ukraine. The indicators were averaged and normalized. To analyze how innovation activities change over time, the dynamic indices based on the geometric mean of the growth rate of the relative indicators were used. The obtained results have significant differences in the regions being assessed. Most regions have a heterogeneous development of innovation activities. At the same time, they are at the top and bottom of the rankings of the regions in different indicators of the development of innovation activities. Only Cherkasy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are at the top of the rankings in at least 75% of indicators. However, in 2017‒2019, all indicators improved in at least 29% of regions. In addition, 75% of indicators improved in at least 54% of regions. Therefore, over time, most regions progressed in the development of innovation activities. Management decisions for the development of innovation activities should be complex for all regions and implemented primarily in the regions where there is no improvement over time. AcknowledgmentsThe paper is prepared within the scientific research project “Sustainable development and resource security: from disruptive technologies to digital transformation of Ukrainian economy” (No. 0121U100470).
Accelerating the development of new energy infrastructure in the EU based on renewable energy sources is necessary for the targeted reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and increase in energy production from renewable sources. This article reviews current renewable energy development issues and research on energy innovations within the European energy policy. The effectiveness of energy generation from renewable resources and adaptation of energy innovations may be limited to the challenges of ensuring the flexibility of the pan-European energy system, as the development of energy storage systems and technologies to respond to demand is much slower than the development of renewable energy. Therefore, the study's primary purpose was to explain by mathematical modelling the determinism of variation in electricity production in the EU27 due to predictors of net electricity generation from certain types of renewable resources for 2017-2020. To identify the effects of the deployment of renewable energy in the EU27, a regression model of Markov switching for three regimes was chosen, consisting of selected predictors of clean energy generation from renewable sources (hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar). The statsmodels v0.13.2 toolkit in Python 3.10.5 was used to conduct this study. The variation between total electricity production and net electricity generation in the EU27 is not constant and depends on the mode of electricity production. That is, there is an asymmetry in the relationship between these parameters. The results also show that when the electricity generation rate in the EU27 is moderate, the net wind energy generation rate is not significant. Furthermore, the negative link between clean solar energy generation and electricity production in the EU is significant for all three regimes.
For Ukraine the issue of renewable energy development is extremely relevant in view of energy (increase in energy independence), economic (reduction of energy resources import costs), environmental (reduction of environmental pollution) and social (improvement of energy supply, increase in income of the population) problems that can be solved at its expense. Based on the existing potential, if there exist adequate mechanisms of government support for the renewable energy development, Ukraine may increase the share of renewable energy sources in the energy balance up to 25% by 2035, reducing to import a significant share of energy resources. In order to justify the economic feasibility of investing in households’ renewable energy projects until 2029 and to identify the promising trends in this sector development in Ukraine, the authors have assessed the economic efficiency of a project of 10 kW solar power plant construction in a typical Ukrainian household under some conditions. The results have shown that it is expected to observe a gradual outflow of investments from renewable energy sector of households since 2022-2023 due to the decrease in feed-in tariff rates and a corresponding decrease in the profitability of private renewable energy projects with small power capacities. Therefore an alternative powerful state support will be needed to provide the development of renewable energy sector.
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