This paper demonstrates the importance of adequately modelling the Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) and seasonality when estimating transportation oil demand for the UK and Japan. The structural time series model is therefore employed to allow for a stochastic underlying trend and stochastic seasonals using quarterly data from the early 1970s, for both UK and Japan. It is found that the stochastic seasonals are preferred to the conventional deterministic dummies and, more importantly, the UEDT is found to be highly non-linear for both countries, with periods where it is both upward and downward sloping.
The Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC) consists of members of the Department of Economics who work on energy economics, environmental economics and regulation. The Department of Economics has a long-standing tradition of energy economics research from its early origins under the leadership of Professor Colin Robinson. This was consolidated in 1983 when the University established SEEC, with Colin as the Director; to study the economics of energy and energy markets. SEEC undertakes original energy economics research and since being established it has conducted research across the whole spectrum of energy economics, including the international oil market, North Sea oil & gas, UK & international coal, gas privatisation & regulation, electricity privatisation & regulation, measurement of efficiency in energy industries, energy & development, energy demand modelling & forecasting, and energy & the environment. SEEC research output includes SEEDS-Surrey Energy Economic Discussion paper Series (details at www.seec.surrey.ac.uk/Research/SEEDS.htm) as well as a range of other academic papers, books and monographs. SEEC also runs workshops and conferences that bring together academics and practitioners to explore and discuss the important energy issues of the day. SEEC also attracts a large proportion of the department's PhD students and oversees the MSc in Energy Economics & Policy. Many students have successfully completed their MSc and/or PhD in energy economics and gone on to very interesting and rewarding careers, both in academia and the energy industry.
There is unfortunately an error in the proof of Lemma 3.1 in [1] and so there are missing groups in the list of Theorem B. This was kindly pointed out to me by J. B. Olsson and his student Madsen. Let G be a finite p-nilpotent group with 0 P (G)-{1}. If r p i{G) = 3, then it is clear that |7r(O p /(G)) < 2. In the Theorem below, we give all the isomorphism classes of finite p-nilpotent groups G with r p >(G)-3 under the assumption that |7r(0p'(G))| = 2. By adding six types of groups given in the theorem to the list of Theorem B, we obtain all the finite/?-solvable groups G with 0 P (G)-{1} which have exactly three p-regular classes. The details can be found in the author's paper [2].
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