Underlying trends and seasonality in UK energy demand: a sectoral analysis

Hunt, Lester C.; Judge, Guy; Ninomiya, Yasushi

doi:10.1016/s0140-9883(02)00072-5

Cited by 172 publications

(111 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Harvey (1997) mentions that all dynamic econometrics should not be based on autoregressions. Also Hunt et al (2003) add that methodologies that allow for their coefficients to vary stochastically over time can be proven helpful.…”

Section: General Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: A Kalman filter application

Inglesi‐Lotz

2011

Energy Policy

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a b s t r a c tIn South Africa, the electricity mismatch of supply and demand has been of major concern. Additional to past problems, the 2008 electricity crisis made the solution crucial after its damaging consequences to the economy. The disagreement on the need and consequences of the continuous electricity price hikes worsens the situation.To contribute to the recent electricity debate, this paper proposes a time-varying price elasticity of demand for electricity; the sensitivity of electricity consumption to price fluctuations changes throughout the years. The main purpose of this study is the estimation of the price elasticity of electricity in South Africa during the period 1980-2005 by employing an advanced econometric technique, the Kalman filter.Apart from the decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption (À 71.8% in the 1990s and À 94.5% in the 2000s in average), our results conclude to an important finding: the higher the prices (for example in the 1980s) the higher the sensitivity of consumers to price fluctuations.Thus, further increases of the electricity prices may lead to changes in the behaviour of electricity consumers, focusing their efforts on improving their efficiency levels by introducing demand-side management techniques or even turning to other sources of -cheaper -energy.

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Section: General Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: A Kalman filter application

Inglesi‐Lotz

2011

Energy Policy

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“…The results of the estimation are presented in Section 4, with a summary and conclusion in the final section. 9 As advocated by Hunt et al (2003a and2003b) 10 As proposed by Griffin and Schulman (2005) and Adeyemi and Hunt (2007). 11 The UEDT implicitly includes exogenous technical progress of the appliance and building stock and it could be argued that even though technologies are available to each state they are not necessarily installed at the same rate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

US residential energy demand and energy efficiency: A stochastic demand frontier approach

2012

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“…He also suggests that the statistical properties of the method are poor and consequently, there is limited justification for such a systematic use of this method. Instead, he has proposed an alternative method called the Structural Time Series models, which have been applied to the energy demand, among others, by Hunt et al (2003) and Adeyemi and Hunt (2007).…”

Section: Econometric Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These studies often adopted an aggregated analysis but used more advanced time-series data analysis techniques. Examples for the industrial sector include Hunt and Lynk (1992), Hunt et al (2003), Dimitriopoulos et al (2005), Kulshrestha and Parikh (2000), and Adeyemi and Hunt (2007). Adeyemi and Hunt (2007) summarize the developments in the econometric tradition of energy demand analysis as follows: "there is no consensus on how to estimate industrial energy demand, in particular how the effect of technical change and (possible other important exogenous factors) is captured.…”

Section: Box 10: Logit Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Demand Models For Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study Of Energy Demand Models

Bhattacharyya¹,

Timilsina²

2009

Policy Research Working Papers

127

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This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy This paper-a product of the Environment and Energy Team, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the department to study climate change and clean energy issues. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at gtimilsina@worldbank.org.commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries. Energy Demand Models for Acronyms and Definitions DefinitionsA few terms appear recurrently in this report: tool, model, method, methodology, approach and framework. We give the dictionary meaning of these terms and indicate how we have used them in this paper.A "tool" is "the means whereby some act is accomplished" or "an implement used in the practice of a vocation". In this paper, we use the term to imply an implement or a kit that is used in analyzing energy demand or forecasting demand or in analyzing the energy system in its part or whole.A "model" is defined as "a simplified description of a complex entity or process". In this paper, we use models to imply a simplified representation of a complex problem or process, often in mathematical terms, that helps us in conceptualizing and analyzing the problem. In this sense, a model can be a tool or can employ a number of tools in a systematic way.A "framework" is defined as "a structure supporting or containing something" or "a simplified description of a complex entity or process". In this paper, we have used this term interchangeably with a model.A "method" is defined as "a way of doing something, especially a systematic way; implies an orderly logical arrangement (usually in steps)". We have used the term to mean a logical, systematic approach for accomplishing a task.An "approach" is defined as the "ideas or actions intended to deal with a problem or situatio...

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Underlying trends and seasonality in UK energy demand: a sectoral analysis

Cited by 172 publications

References 22 publications

The evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: A Kalman filter application

The evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: A Kalman filter application

US residential energy demand and energy efficiency: A stochastic demand frontier approach

Energy Demand Models For Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study Of Energy Demand Models

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