jected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers might be tempted to inflate the value of those just-rejected tests by choosing a "significant" specification. We propose a method to measure this residual and describe how it varies by article and author characteristics.
We analyze how internal labor migration facilitates shock coping in rural economies. Employing high precision satellite data, we identify objective variations in the inundations generated by a catastrophic typhoon in Vietnam and match them with household panel data before and after the shock.We find that, following a massive drop in income, households cope mainly through labor migration to urban areas. Households with settled migrants ex-ante receive more remittances. Non-migrant households react by sending new members away who then remit similar amounts than established migrants. This mechanism is most effective with long-distance migration, while local networks fail to provide insurance. JEL: Q12; R23; Q54.Keywords: Risk Sharing; Internal Migration; Natural Disasters; Vietnam. * Corresponding author: André Gröger, Goethe University Frankfurt, email: agroeger@wiwi.unifrankfurt.de. Yanos Zylberberg, University of Bristol, email: yanos.zylberberg@bristol.ac.uk. We are grateful to Bob Baulch, Martina Björkman Nyqvist, Esther Duflo, Guido Friebel, Corrado Giulietti, Dany Jaimovich, Stephan Klasen, Steffen Lohmann, Rocco Macchiavello, Teresa Molina Millán, Dilip Mookherjee, Hillel Rapoport, Isabelle Sin, Steven Stillman, Alessandro Tarozzi, Sebastian Vollmer, and two anonymous referees for useful discussions and comments. We also thank participants at the
Journals favor rejection of the null hypothesis. This selection upon tests may distort the behavior of researchers. Using 50, 000 tests published between 2005 and 2011 in the AER, JPE, and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained by selection. The distribution of p-values exhibits a two humped camel shape with abundant p-values above 0.25, a valley between 0.25 and 0.10, and a bump slightly below 0.05. The missing tests (with p-values between 0.25 and 0.10) can be retrieved just after the 0.05 threshold and represent 10% to 20% of marginally rejected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers might be tempted to inflate the value of those just-rejected tests by choosing a "significant" specification. We propose a method to measure this residual and describe how it varies by article and author characteristics.
jected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers might be tempted to inflate the value of those just-rejected tests by choosing a "significant" specification. We propose a method to measure this residual and describe how it varies by article and author characteristics.
Why are the east sides of formerly industrial cities often the more deprived? Using individual-level census data together with newly created historical pollution patterns derived from the locations of 5,000 industrial chimneys and an atmospheric model, we show that this results from the persistence of neighborhood sorting that first emerged during the Industrial Revolution when prevailing winds blew pollution eastwards. Past pollution explains up to 20% of the observed neighborhood segregation in 2011, even though coal pollution stopped in the 1970s. A quantitative model identifies the role of non-linearities and tipping-like dynamics underlying this persistence.
How does rural-urban migration shape urban production in developing countries? We use longitudinal data on Chinese manufacturing firms between 2000 and 2006, and exploit exogenous variation in rural-urban migration induced by agricultural income shocks for identification. We find that, when immigration increases, manufacturing production becomes more labor intensive and productivity declines. We investigate the reorganization of production using patent applications and product information. We show that rural-urban migration induces both labor-oriented technological change and the adoption of labor intensive product varieties. (JEL D24, L23, L60, O33, P25, P31, R23)
This paper provides empirical evidence that, after protests, citizens substantially revise their views on the current leader, but also their trust in the country's institutions. The empirical strategy exploits variation in the timing of an individual level survey and the proximity to social protests in 13 African countries. First, we find that trust in political leaders strongly and abruptly decreases after protests. Second, trust in the country monitoring institutions plunges as well. Both effects are much stronger when protests are repressed by the government. As no signs of distrust are recorded even a couple of days before the social conflicts, protests can be interpreted as sudden signals sent on a leaders' actions from which citizens extract information on their country fundamentals.
A substantial fraction of workers are underemployed, i.e., employed in jobs for which they are overqualified, and that fraction—the underemployment rate—is higher in recessions. To explain these facts, we build a search model with an endogenous “ranking” mechanism, in which high-skill applicants are systematically hired over less-skilled competing applicants. Some high-skill workers become underemployed in order to escape the competition for high-skill jobs and find a job more rapidly at the expense of less-skilled workers. Quantitatively, the model can capture the key characteristics of underemployment, notably the fact that both the underemployment rate and the wage loss associated with becoming underemployed increase in recessions. (JEL E24, E32, J24, J64)
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