No abstract

Significance Recent destructive megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan and Sumatra indicate the difficulty of forecasting these events. Geodetic monitoring of the offshore regions of the subduction zones where these events occur has been suggested as a useful tool, but its potential has never been conclusively demonstrated. Here we show that slow slip events, nondestructive events that release energy slowly over weeks or months, are important mechanisms for releasing seismic strain in subduction zones. Better monitoring of these events, especially those offshore, could allow estimates of the size of future earthquakes and their potential for damaging tsunamis. However, the predictive value of slow slip events remains unclear.

We use campaign and continuous GPS measurements at 49 sites between 1996 and 2010 to describe the long‐term active deformation in and near the Nicoya Peninsula, northwestern Costa Rica. The observed deformation reveals partial partitioning of the Cocos‐Caribbean oblique convergence into trench‐parallel forearc sliver motion and less oblique thrusting on the subduction interface. The northern Costa Rican forearc translates northwestward as a whole ridge block at 11 ± 1 mm/yr relative to the stable Caribbean. The transition from the forearc to the stable Caribbean occurs in a narrow deforming zone of ∼16 km wide. Subduction thrust earthquakes take 2/3 of the trench‐parallel component of the plate convergence; however, surface deformation caused by interseismic megathrust coupling is primarily trench‐normal. Two fully coupled patches, one located offshore Nicoya centered at ∼15 km depth and the other located inland centered at ∼24 km depth, are identified in Nicoya with the potential to generate an Mw 7.8 1950‐type earthquake. Another fully coupled patch SE of Nicoya coincides with the rupture region of the 1990 Nicoya Gulf earthquake. Interface microearthquakes, non‐volcanic tremor, low‐frequency earthquakes, and transient slow‐slip events generally occur in the intermediately to weakly coupled regions.

In a viscoelastic Earth, stresses slowly built up due to fault locking are relaxed concurrently during the entire interseismic period. This interseismic stress relaxation causes crustal deformation much farther away from the locked fault than can be explained using elastic models that neglect the relaxation. Here we develop a viscoelastic geodetic inversion model to address this problem at Cascadia. We invert ~500 horizontal velocity vectors based on continuous and campaign geodetic measurements over the past two decades. Ambiguities arising from long‐term rotation of upper‐plate crustal blocks are addressed by test‐correcting the geodetic velocities with two different block‐motion models. Fault back slip (i.e., slip deficit) Green's functions are derived using a Maxwell viscoelastic finite element model with realistic subduction zone structure and megathrust geometry. The preferred model features a narrow and shallow megathrust locked zone, consistent with earlier thermorheological reasoning. For an elastic model to fit the data to the same fidelity, megathrust locking has to extend to much greater depths. However, even with the viscoelastic model, the land‐based geodetic data still cannot resolve whether there is some creep (incomplete locking) in the shallowest part of the megathrust far offshore. Neither can the land data fully resolve along‐strike variations of the locking state. These ambiguities can be resolved only when adequate seafloor geodetic data are obtained.

After approximately 60 years of seismic quiescence within Santorini caldera, in January 2011 the volcano reawakened with a significant seismic swarm and rapidly expanding radial deformation. The deformation is imaged by a dense network of 19 survey and 5 continuous GPS stations, showing that as of 21 January 2012, the volcano has extended laterally from a point inside the northern segment of the caldera by about 140 mm and is expanding at 180 mm/yr. A series of spherical source models show the source is not migrating significantly, but remains about 4 km depth and has expanded by 14 million m3since inflation began. A distributed sill model is also tested, which shows a possible N‐S elongation of the volumetric source. While observations of the current deformation sequence are unprecedented at Santorini, it is not certain that an eruption is imminent as other similar calderas have experienced comparable activity without eruption.