No abstract

The Nicoya Peninsula in Costa Rica is one of the few places on Earth where the seismically active plate interface of a subduction zone is directly overlaid by land rather than ocean. At this plate interface, large megathrust earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7 occur approximately every 50 years. Such quakes occurred in 1853, 1900 and 1950, so another large earthquake had been anticipated 1,2 . Land-based Global Positioning System 3,4 (GPS) and seismic 5-7 measurements revealed a region where the plate interface was locked and hence accumulated seismic strain that could be released in future earthquakes. On 5 September 2012, the longanticipated Nicoya earthquake occurred in the heart of the previously identified locked patch. Here we report observations of coseismic deformation from GPS and geomorphic data along the Nicoya Peninsula and show that the magnitude 7.6 Nicoya earthquake ruptured the lateral and down-dip extent of the previously locked region of the plate interface. We also identify a previously locked part of the plate interface, located immediately offshore, that may not have slipped during the 2012 earthquake, where monitoring should continue. By pairing observations of the spatial extent of interseismic locking and subsequent coseismic rupture, we demonstrate the use of detailed near-field geodetic investigations during the late interseismic period for identifying future earthquake potential.The interface between convergent plates produces most of the world's largest earthquakes, threatening local inhabitants and global populations through destructive shaking and tsunami generation, as demonstrated by the recent 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki and 2004 M w 9.15 Sumatra-Andaman earthquakes and tsunami. Owing to the significant societal impacts, geoscientists endeavour to understand the driving and locking mechanisms controlling subduction zone seismicity. The shallow earthquakegenerating portion of the subduction interface, hereafter referred to as the megathrust, is difficult to characterize because it is relatively inaccessible, spans great lengths of continental margins and requires detailed near-field observations primarily in the marine environment.

We use campaign and continuous GPS measurements at 49 sites between 1996 and 2010 to describe the long‐term active deformation in and near the Nicoya Peninsula, northwestern Costa Rica. The observed deformation reveals partial partitioning of the Cocos‐Caribbean oblique convergence into trench‐parallel forearc sliver motion and less oblique thrusting on the subduction interface. The northern Costa Rican forearc translates northwestward as a whole ridge block at 11 ± 1 mm/yr relative to the stable Caribbean. The transition from the forearc to the stable Caribbean occurs in a narrow deforming zone of ∼16 km wide. Subduction thrust earthquakes take 2/3 of the trench‐parallel component of the plate convergence; however, surface deformation caused by interseismic megathrust coupling is primarily trench‐normal. Two fully coupled patches, one located offshore Nicoya centered at ∼15 km depth and the other located inland centered at ∼24 km depth, are identified in Nicoya with the potential to generate an Mw 7.8 1950‐type earthquake. Another fully coupled patch SE of Nicoya coincides with the rupture region of the 1990 Nicoya Gulf earthquake. Interface microearthquakes, non‐volcanic tremor, low‐frequency earthquakes, and transient slow‐slip events generally occur in the intermediately to weakly coupled regions.