Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: Relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture

Dixon, Timothy H.; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, R.; McCaffrey, Robert J.; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, M.; González, Víctor

doi:10.1073/pnas.1412299111

Cited by 123 publications

(177 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…The problem of how to predict material strength and sample failure is where engineering, materials science, and physics meet [1][2][3][4]. The predictability of lifetimes of structures and materials involves phenomena on various scales, beginning with atomic interactions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting sample lifetimes in creep fracture of heterogeneous materials

et al. 2016

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Materials flow-under creep or constant loads-and, finally, fail. The prediction of sample lifetimes is an important and highly challenging problem because of the inherently heterogeneous nature of most materials that results in large sample-to-sample lifetime fluctuations, even under the same conditions. We study creep deformation of paper sheets as one heterogeneous material and thus show how to predict lifetimes of individual samples by exploiting the "universal" features in the sample-inherent creep curves, particularly the passage to an accelerating creep rate. Using simulations of a viscoelastic fiber bundle model, we illustrate how deformation localization controls the shape of the creep curve and thus the degree of lifetime predictability.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting sample lifetimes in creep fracture of heterogeneous materials

et al. 2016

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“…The size, duration, association with seismicity and location of these shallow events vary between subduction zones. At northern Hikurangi, Costa Rica, the Boso Peninsula, Ecuador and the Ryukyu trench, moderate to large (equivalent to moment magnitude, M w = 6.0-7.0) slow slip events commonly last a few to several weeks with cumulative slip of a few to tens of centimetres [6][7][8]17,18 . The up-dip limit of slip in these events is not well constrained, and they may propagate all the way to the trench 6,19 .…”

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confidence: 99%

“…In contrast, the Nankai margin hosts M w ~3.0-4.9 VLFEs, characterized by total slip <1 cm and durations of tens of seconds, which occur near the up-dip edge of historical M w = 8.0 class earthquake ruptures 5,11,15 ; these follow the same magnitude-duration scaling behaviour as the larger and slower SSEs 1 . Slow events in northern and central Japan and Costa Rica lie within the seismogenic depth range of the plate interface that has repeatedly failed in large earthquakes 7,8,[12][13][14] . In contrast, SSEs at the Hikurangi 6 and Ecuador 17 margins occur within a region that is currently dominated by interseismic creep, but with probable locked, seismogenic patches embedded within the shallow creeping region.…”

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confidence: 99%

The frictional, hydrologic, metamorphic and thermal habitat of shallow slow earthquakes

2015

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“…Along the megathrust, earthquakes, very low frequency earthquakes, and tsunami earthquakes are typically found updip of the continental Mohorovicic (Moho) discontinuity. In contrast, slow-slip events are often found close to or below the continental Moho depth at many subduction zones around the circum-Pacific seismic belt 3 , even though some happen at shallow depth, notably in New Zealand 4-6 and Costa Rica 7,8 . Slow-slip events at subduction zones worldwide often embody similar, characteristic features [9][10][11][12][13] .…”

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confidence: 99%

“…, even though some happen at shallow depth, notably in New Zealand [4][5][6] and Costa Rica 7,8 . Slow-slip events at subduction zones worldwide often embody similar, characteristic features [9][10][11][12][13] .…”

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confidence: 99%

Slow-slip events in semi-brittle serpentinite fault zones

Goswami¹,

Barbot²

2018

Preprint

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Slow-slip events are earthquake-like events only with much lower slip rates. While peak coseismic velocities can reach tens of meters per second, slow-slip is on the order of 10 −7±2 m/s and may last for days to weeks. Under the rate-and-state model of fault friction, slow-slip is produced only when the asperity size is commensurate with the critical nucleation size, a function of frictional properties. However, it is unlikely that all subduction zones embody the same frictional properties. In addition to friction, plastic flow of antigorite-rich serpentinite may significantly influence the dynamics of fault slip near the mantle wedge corner. Here, we show that the range of frictional parameters that generate slow slip is widened in the presence of a serpentinized layer along the subduction plate interface. We observe increased stability and damping of fast ruptures in a semi-brittle fault zone governed by both brittle and viscoelastic constitutive response. The rate of viscous serpentinite flow, governed by dislocation creep, is enhanced by high ambient temperatures. When effective viscosity is taken to be dynamic, long-term slow slip events spontaneously emerge. Integration of rheology, thermal effects, and other microphysical processes with rate-and-state friction may yield further insight into the phenomenology of slow slip.The dynamics of fault slip at subduction zones can assume a wide range of behaviors. A continuum of slip modes that includes fast earthquakes, slow-slip events, and stable creep determines seismic hazards 1,2 . Along the megathrust, earthquakes, very low frequency earthquakes, and tsunami earthquakes are typically found updip of the continental Mohorovicic (Moho) discontinuity. In contrast, slow-slip events are often found close to or below the continental Moho depth at many subduction zones around the circum-Pacific seismic belt 3 , even though some happen at shallow depth, notably in New Zealand 4-6 and Costa Rica 7,8 . Slow-slip events at subduction zones worldwide often embody similar, characteristic features [9][10][11][12][13] . In particular, we observe small stress drops in the range 10-200 kPa, short recurrence times of a few months to a few years, and sometimes more regular periodicity than for earthquakes 14 . Some characteristics of slow-slip events can be explained within the context of rate-and-state friction 15,16 with conditionally stable behavior [17][18][19][20][21] . Runaway frictional instabilities require a critical size for nucleation that depends on the frictional parameters and the effective confining pressure. For sufficiently small velocity-weakening asperities, only creep spontaneously occurs. Slow-slip events emerge spontaneously when the asperity size is commensurate to critical nucleation size 22 . As slow-slip events are now found close to universally at subduction zones [23][24][25][26][27][28] , it is unrealistic to expect the same combination of parameters across widely distant regions (Fig. 1A). Several authors developed and investigated other friction l...

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Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: Relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture

Cited by 123 publications

References 55 publications

Predicting sample lifetimes in creep fracture of heterogeneous materials

Predicting sample lifetimes in creep fracture of heterogeneous materials

The frictional, hydrologic, metamorphic and thermal habitat of shallow slow earthquakes

Slow-slip events in semi-brittle serpentinite fault zones

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