Climate change and its variability are some of the most critical threats to sustainable agriculture, with potentially severe consequences on Indonesia’s agriculture, such as changes in rainfall patterns, especially the onset of the wet season and the temporal distribution of rainfall. Most Indonesian farmers receive support from agricultural extension services, and therefore, design their agricultural calendar based on personal experience without considering global climate phenomena, such as La Niña and El Niño, which difficult to interpret on a local scale. This paper describes the Integrated Cropping Calendar Information System (ICCIS) as a mechanism for adapting to climate variability. The ICCIS contains recommendations on planting time, cropping pattern, planting area, varieties, fertilizers, agricultural machinery, potential livestock feed, and crop damage due to climate extremes for rice, maize, and soybean. To accelerate the dissemination of information, the ICCIS is presented in an integrated web-based information system. The ICCIS is disseminated to extension workers and farmers by Task Force of the Assessment Institute for Agricultural Technology (AIAT) located in each province. Based on the survey results, it is known that the ICCIS adoption rate is moderate to high. The AIAT must actively encourage and support the ICCIS Task Force team in each province. Concerning the technological recommendations, it is necessary to update the recommendations for varieties, fertilizer, and feed to be more compatible with local conditions. More accurate information and more intensive dissemination can enrich farmers’ knowledge, allowing for a better understanding of climate hazards and maintaining agricultural production.
About 60% of the rice produced in Indonesia is grown in the fertile soils of the island of Java. Introduction of the high-yielding rice varieties and improvement of cultural technique have increased rice production, and self-sufficiency was attained in 1984. However, increasing population and decreasing land for rice cultivation could threaten the food supply in the country. Rice production is also threatened by interannual climate variability and possible climate change. To provide policymakers and planners with information to formulate a strategy to cope with interannual climate variability and the possible climate change, rice yields of 2 production areas on Java were simulated using the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) rice growth simulation model. The crop model predicted lower rice yields for different management options, compared with experiment plots, but predicted yields similar to or slightly higher than the farmers' yield. In general, the predictions relate quite well. The GISS, GFDL, and UKMO climate models predicted higher rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature in both locations. In the higher rainfall and lower temperature of the West Java site, the climate change scenarios reduced rice grain yield in both the first and second crops. During normal years in the relatively warmer and dryer climate of the East Java site, there was no significant yield reduction due to climate change, except under the UKMO scenario in the second crop. Because high temperature and CO 2 concentration favor rice growth, development of more heat-tolerant varieties probably can compensate for the yield losses due to climate change in the future. Except for the GISS and GFDL climate scenarios in the first crop and the baseline climate scenario in the second crop in the West Java site, higher yield losses were predicted because of interannual climate variability. Since the dry spell threat is more imminent and frequent, to improve preparedness a short-term climate prediction for the tropical region is urgently needed.
Dalam dua dekade terakhir, berbagai program intensifikasi penggunaan sarana produksi pertanian (misal: bantuan benih, pupuk bersubsidi, pupuk organik, dan perbaikan irigasi) telah berdampak terhadap peningkatan produksi beras nasional. Di balik keberhasilan program tersebut, fluktuasi kondisi iklim memberikan tantangan dalam mempertahankan stabilitas produksi nasional. Kondisi tersebut dapat diperparah dengan adanya potensi dampak negatif perubahan iklim yang berakibat pada penurunan produktivitas ataupun peningkatan serangan hama dan penyakit. Ancaman lainnya adalah peningkatan fenomena iklim ekstrem yang dapat menyebabkan bencana banjir dan kekeringan, sehingga berimplikasi pada gagal panen ataupun gagal tanam. Memperhatikan kondisi tersebut, tulisan ini membahas berbagai inisiatif adaptasi yang dilakukan melalui langkah praktis dan didorong oleh regulasi yang dikeluarkan pemerintah Indonesia. Praktik adaptasi dilakukan melalui insiatif mandiri berdasarkan kearifan lokal maupun bantuan pemerintah. Iniastif pemerintah terkait adaptasi dilakukan melalui Pedoman Umum Langkah-Langkah Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim (Pedum) dan langkah praktis dalam strategi budidaya yang responsif terhadap perubahan iklim.
ABSTRAKKetergantungan yang sangat tinggi terhadap curah hujan menjadikan lahan sawah tadah hujan memiliki periode tanam yang terbatas. Sementara curah hujan itu sendiri sangat dipengaruhi oleh perubahan iklim. Makalah ini menyajikan hasil analisis tentang dampak perubahan iklim terhadap produksi padi di lahan sawah tadah hujan dengan model simulasi tanaman DSSAT. Lokasi penelitian yaitu Jakenan dan Ngale. Skenario perubahan iklim yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan hasil analisis menggunakan model Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Program (C3MP) Sensitivity test Versi 2.0. Uji sensitivitas C3MP dilakukan dengan menyesuaikan kondisi iklim historis untuk mencerminkan perubahan o suhu, presipitasi, dan CO . Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Perubahan suhu 0,5 C dan konsentrasi CO 537 ppm 2 2 masih meningkatkan produksi 2,2 hingga 502,5 kg/ha di Jakenan dan 15,9 hingga 507,7 kg/ha di Ngale yang terjadi o hampir di setiap Bulan mulai Januari-Desember. Perubahan suhu 1 C dan konsentrasi CO 403 ppm secara umum masih 2 meningkatkan hasil tetapi hanya terjadi pada bulan-bulan tertentu yaitu sebesar 57,4 hingga 366,2 kg/ha di Jakenan dan 21,9 -320,4 kg/ha di Ngale. Kata kunci : Padi, tadah hujan, DSSAT, suhu udara, curah hujan dan konsentrasi CO 2 ABSTRACT Very high dependence on rainfall makes rain-fed land has limited the planting period for rice cultivation. While the rainfall itself strongly influenced by climate change. This paper presents the results of analysis of the relationship of climate change expressed by changes in temperature, precipitation and CO concentrations on rice production in rain-2 fed land with crop simulation models DSSAT. Location of this research are Jakenan and Ngale. Parameters are indicators of climate change is the air temperature and CO concentrations with two scenarios. Climate change 2 scenarios used in this study is the result of analysis using a model -Crop Coordinated Climate Modeling Program (C3MP) Sensitivity test Version 2.0. C3MP sensitivity test is done by adjusting the historical climate conditions to reflect changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO . 2 oThe results showed that the temperature change of 0.5 C and 537 ppm CO concentration still increased the production of 2.2 to 502.5 kg/ha in Jakenan and 15.9 to 507.7 kg/ha in Ngale which 2 o occurred almost every month starting January-December. Changes in temperature of 1 C and concentration of CO 403 2 ppm in general still increase yield but only occur in certain months that is equal to 57,4 to 366,2 kg/ha in Jakenan and 21,4 kg/ha in Ngale.
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