A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional development are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

BackgroundModels of the effects of environmental factors on West Nile virus disease risk have yielded conflicting outcomes. The role of precipitation has been especially difficult to discern from existing studies, due in part to habitat and behavior characteristics of specific vector species and because of differences in the temporal and spatial scales of the published studies. We used spatial and statistical modeling techniques to analyze and forecast fine scale spatial (2000 m grid) and temporal (weekly) patterns of West Nile virus mosquito infection relative to changing weather conditions in the urban landscape of the greater Chicago, Illinois, region for the years from 2004 to 2008.ResultsIncreased air temperature was the strongest temporal predictor of increased infection in Culex pipiens and Culex restuans mosquitoes, with cumulative high temperature differences being a key factor distinguishing years with higher mosquito infection and higher human illness rates from those with lower rates. Drier conditions in the spring followed by wetter conditions just prior to an increase in infection were factors in some but not all years. Overall, 80% of the weekly variation in mosquito infection was explained by prior weather conditions. Spatially, lower precipitation was the most important variable predicting stronger mosquito infection; precipitation and temperature alone could explain the pattern of spatial variability better than could other environmental variables (79% explained in the best model). Variables related to impervious surfaces and elevation differences were of modest importance in the spatial model.ConclusionFinely grained temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation and air temperature have a consistent and significant impact on the timing and location of increased mosquito infection in the northeastern Illinois study area. The use of local weather data at multiple monitoring locations and the integration of mosquito infection data from numerous sources across several years are important to the strength of the models presented. The other spatial environmental factors that tended to be important, including impervious surfaces and elevation measures, would mediate the effect of rainfall on soils and in urban catch basins. Changes in weather patterns with global climate change make it especially important to improve our ability to predict how inter-related local weather and environmental factors affect vectors and vector-borne disease risk.Local impact of temperature and precipitation on West Nile virus infection in Culex species mosquitoes in northeast Illinois, USA.

Abstract. Urban habitat heterogeneity can modify interactions across species and lead to spatially fine grained differences in b-diversity patterns and their associated ecosystem services. Here, we study the impacts of landscape heterogeneity and climatic variability on: (1) the richness and diversity patterns of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) and (2) the abundance and West Nile virus infection rate of the house mosquito, Culex pipiens, in Chicago, USA. We conducted a four year long study (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008) in 8 sites that captured a gradient of urban heterogeneities. We found a total of 19 mosquito species, a representative sample of mosquito species richness in the area, according to both model estimation (Chao2 6 S.E. ¼ 20.50 6 2.29) and faunal records for Chicago. We found that heterogeneity in the landscape was the best predictor of both mosquito species richness and diversity, with the most heterogeneous landscapes harboring the largest number of species. In general there were no changes in species richness over the years that could be associated with weather patterns and climatic variability (WPCV). In contrast, changes in diversity were associated with WPCV. Our results also showed that WPCV had major impacts on house mosquito abundance and West Nile virus mosquito infection rate (MIR) patterns. Although MIR was independent of mosquito diversity, it was associated with overall mosquito abundance, which had a convex association with species richness (i.e., abundance increases to a point after which it decreases as function of species richness). Finally, our results highlight the importance of considering dominant vector species as part of a community of vectors, whose biodiversity patterns can directly or indirectly impact the risk of infectious disease transmission.

Epizootic transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) often intensifies rapidly leading to increasing risk of human infection, but the processes underlying amplification remain poorly understood. We quantified epizootic WNV transmission in communities of mosquitoes and birds in the Chicago, Illinois (USA) region during 2005 and 2006. Using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods, we detected WNV in 227 of 1195 mosquito pools (19%) in 2005 and 205 of 1685 (12%) in 2006; nearly all were Culex pipiens. In both years, mosquito infection rates increased rapidly in the second half of July to a peak of 59/1000 mosquitoes in 2005 and 33/1000 in 2006, and then declined slowly. Viral RNA was detected in 11 of 998 bird sera (1.1%) in 2005 and 3 of 1285 bird sera (<1%) in 2006; 11 of the 14 virus-positive birds were hatch-year birds. Of 540 hatch-year birds, 100 (18.5%) were seropositive in 2005, but only 2.8% (14/493) tested seropositive in 2006 for WNV antibodies using inhibition enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We observed significant time series cross-correlations between mosquito infection rate and proportion of virus-positive birds, proportion of hatch-year birds captured in mist nets (significant in 2006 only), seroprevalence of hatch-year birds, and number of human cases in both seasons. These associations, coupled with the predominance of WNV infection and seropositivity in hatch-year birds, indicate a key role for hatch-year birds in the amplification of epizootic transmission of WNV, and in increasing human infection risk by facilitating local viral amplification.

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Dispersal is a critical life history behavior for mosquitoes and is important for the spread of mosquito-borne disease. We implemented the first stable isotope mark-capture study to measure mosquito dispersal, focusing on Culex pipiens in southwest suburban Chicago, Illinois, a hotspot of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. We enriched nine catch basins in 2010 and 2011 with 15N-potassium nitrate and detected dispersal of enriched adult females emerging from these catch basins using CDC light and gravid traps to distances as far as 3 km. We detected 12 isotopically enriched pools of mosquitoes out of 2,442 tested during the two years and calculated a mean dispersal distance of 1.15 km and maximum flight range of 2.48 km. According to a logistic distribution function, 90% of the female Culex mosquitoes stayed within 3 km of their larval habitat, which corresponds with the distance-limited genetic variation of WNV observed in this study region. This study provides new insights on the dispersal of the most important vector of WNV in the eastern United States and demonstrates the utility of stable isotope enrichment for studying the biology of mosquitoes in other disease systems.

The landscape can influence host dispersal and density, which in turn, affect infectious disease transmission, spread, and persistence. Understanding how the landscape influences wildlife dispersal and pathogen epidemiology can enhance the efficacy of disease management in natural populations. We applied landscape genetics to examine relationships among landscape variables, dispersal of white-tailed deer hosts and transmission/spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal prion encephalopathy. Our focus was on quantifying movements and population structure of host deer in infected areas as a means of predicting the spread of this pathology and promoting its adaptive management. We analyzed microsatellite genotypes of CWD-infected and uninfected deer from two disease foci (Southern Wisconsin, Northern Illinois). We quantified gene flow and population structure using F ST , assignment tests, and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Gene flow estimates were then contrasted against a suite of landscape variables that potentially mediate deer dispersal. Forest fragmentation and grassland connectivity promoted deer movements while rivers, agricultural fields and large urbanized areas impeded movement. Landscape variables, deer dispersal, and disease transmission covaried significantly and positively in our analyses. Habitats with elevated host gene flow supported the concept of dispersalmediated CWD transmission by reflecting a concomitant, rapid CWD expansion. Large, interrelated social groups isolated by movement barriers overlapped disease foci, suggesting that philopatry exacerbated CWD transmission. Our results promote adaptive management of CWD by predicting patterns of its spread and identifying habitats at risk for invasion. Further, our landscape genetics approach underscores the significance of topography and host behavior in wildlife disease transmission.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (