A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional development are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

Deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in North America was accompanied by sequestration of organic carbon in newly exposed soils. The greatest rate of land exposure occurred around 12,000 to 8,000 years ago, and the greatest increase in the rate of carbon sequestration by soils occurred from 8,000 to 4,000 years ago. Sequestration of carbon in deglaciated peat lands continues today, and a steady state has not been reached. The natural rate of carbon sequestration in soils, however, is small relative to the rate of anthropogenic carbon dioxide production.

In order to refine correlations of surface-wave magnitude, fault rupture length at the ground surface, and fault displacement at the surface by including the uncertainties in these variables, the existing data were critically reviewed and a new data base was compiled. Earthquake magnitudes were redetermined as necessary to make them as consistent as possible with the Gutenberg methods and results, which necessarily make up much of the data base. Measurement errors were estimated for the three variables for 58 moderate to large shallow-focus earthquakes. Regression analyses were then made utilizing the estimated measurement errors. The regression analysis demonstrates that the relations among the variables magnitude, length, and displacement are stochastic in nature. The stochastic variance, introduced in part by incomplete surface expression of seismogenic faulting, variation in shear modulus, and regional factors, dominates the estimated measurement errors. Thus, it is appropriate to use ordinary least squares for the regression models, rather than regression models based upon an underlying deterministic relation with the variance resulting from measurement errors. Significant differences exist in correlations of certain combinations of length, displacement, and magnitude when events are qrouped by fault type or by region, including attenuation regions delineated by Evernden and others. Subdivision of the data results in too few data for some fault types and regions, and for these only regressions using all of the data as a group are reported. Estimates of the magnitude and the standard deviation of the magnitude of a prehistoric or future earthquake associated with a fault can be made by correlating M with the logarithms of rupture length, fault displacement, or the product of length and displacement. Fault rupture area could be reliably estimated for about 20 of the events in the data set. Regression of M S on rupture area did not result in a marked improvement over regressions that did not involve rupture area. Because no subduction-zone earthquakes are included in this study, the reported results do not apply to such zones. * Inasmuch as fault displacement varies with rupture length, both length and displacement would change by a factor somewhat less than 1.7.

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Four soil chronosequences in the southern Great Basin were examined in order to study and quantify soil development during the Quaternary. Soils of all four areas are developed in gravelly alluvial fans in semiarid climates with 8 to 40 cm mean annual precipitation. Lithologies of alluvium are granite-gneiss at Silver Lake, granite and basalt at Cima Volcanic Field, limestone at Kyle Canyon, and siliceous volcanic rocks at Fortymile Wash. Ages of the soils are approximated from several radiometric and experimental techniques, and rates are assessed using a conservative mathematical approach. Average rates for Holocene soils at Silver Lake are about 10 times higher than for Pleistocene soils at Kyle Canyon and Fortymile Wash, based on limited age control. Holocene soils in all four areas appear to develop at similar rates, and Pleistocene soils at Kyle Canyon and Fortymile Wash may differ by only a factor of 2 to 4. Over time spans of several millennia, a preferred model for the age curves is not linear but may be exponential or parabolic, in which rates decrease with increasing age. These preliminary results imply that the geographical variation in rates within the southern Great Basin-Mojave region may be much less significant than temporal variation in rates of soil development. The reasons for temporal variation in rates and processes of soil development are complexly linked to climatic change and related changes in water and dust, erosional history, and internally driven chemical and physical processes.