Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. Methods and results  We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65–0.68) to 0.81 (0.76–0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion  SCORE2—a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations—enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

This review summarizes detailed scales or methods that have been used to assess healthy aging in previous epidemiological studies. It also discusses and recommends the essential domains of healthy aging, and the relevant instruments for further epidemiological research to use in the assessment of healthy aging.

Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of duloxetine in the treatment of patients with osteoarthritis (OA) or chronic low back pain (CLBP). Methods: Relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were searched in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov. Included RCTs compared the efficacy and safety of duloxetine vs placebo in the treatment of OA or CLBP. Weighted mean difference (WMD) were calculated for continuous outcomes while risk ratio (RR) were calculated for dichotomous outcomes. Results: Nine RCTs were included in our meta-analysis. Duloxetine had significant improvement over placebo in Brief Pain Inventory 24-h average pain [WMD: À0.67; 95% confidence interval (CI):-0.80, À0.53], weekly mean of the 24-h average pain

Objective: To evaluate the comparative efficacy and safety of Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and an inadequate response to at least one disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD). Methods: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched for relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from inception to April 2020. The active drugs included three JAK inhibitors and eight bDMARDs while the control drugs included placebo or conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs). Outcomes include American College of Rheumatology 20% response (ACR20), Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28), Health Assessment Questionnaire–Disability Index (HAQ-DI) and discontinuations for adverse events (AEs). We estimated summary odds ratios (ORs) and weighted mean differences (WMDs) using network meta-analysis with random effects. Results: Eighty-eight RCTs with 31,566 patients were included. All JAK inhibitors and bDMARDs were more effective than placebo in ACR20 (ORs ranging between 3.05 and 5.61), DAS28 (WMDs ranging between −1.91 and −0.80) and HAQ-DI (WMDs ranging between −0.34 and −0.21). Tocilizumab, certolizumab pegol and upadacitinib showed relatively good efficacy in these three outcomes according to their relative ranking. Notably, tocilizumab was more effective than other active drugs in DAS28 (WMDs ranging between −1.11 and −0.49). Compared with the lower recommended doses, increasing the doses of JAK inhibitors (baricitinib 4 mg versus 2 mg, tofacitinib 10 mg versus 5 mg and upadacitinib 30 mg versus 15 mg) cannot provide significant additional benefits. In terms of discontinuations for AEs, all active drugs showed no significant difference compared with placebo except certolizumab pegol [OR 1.65, 95% credible interval (CrI) 1.06–2.61] and rituximab (3.17, 1.11–10.80). Conclusions: Tocilizumab, certolizumab pegol and upadacitinib may have relatively good efficacy in patients with RA after treatment failure with csDMARDs. RA patients taking a JAK inhibitor may have a preference for a lower recommended dose.

Background Empirical evidence on the epidemiology of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia is limited in many countries in Central and Eastern Europe. We aimed to estimate the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia in the Czech Republic, Russia, Poland and Lithuania, and to identify the risk factors for the three chronic conditions. Methods We analysed cross-sectional data from the HAPIEE study, including adults aged 45–69 years in the Czech Republic, Russia, Poland and Lithuania, collected between 2002 and 2008 (total sample N = 30,882). Among prevalent cases, we estimated awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia by gender and country. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to identify associated risk factors. Results In each country among both men and women, we found high prevalence but low control of hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia. Awareness rates of hypertension were the lowest in both men (61.40%) and women (69.21%) in the Czech Republic, while awareness rates of hypercholesterolemia were the highest in both men (46.51%) and women (51.20%) in Poland. Polish participants also had the highest rates of awareness (77.37% in men and 79.53% in women), treatment (71.99% in men and 74.87% in women) and control (30.98% in men and 38.08% in women) of diabetes. The common risk factors for the three chronic conditions were age, gender, education, obesity and alcohol consumption. Conclusions Patterns of awareness, treatment and control rates of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia differed by country. Efforts should be made in all four countries to control these conditions, including implementation of international guidelines in everyday practice to improve detection and effective management of these conditions.

BackgroundGiven the acceleration of population ageing and policy changes to extend working lives, evidence is needed on the ability of older adults to work for longer. To understand more about the health impacts of work, this study examined the relationship between employment histories before retirement and trajectories of frailty thereafter.MethodsThe sample comprised 2765 women and 1621 men from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. We used gendered typologies of life-time employment and a frailty index (FI). Multilevel growth curve models were used to predict frailty trajectories by employment histories.ResultsWomen who had a short break for family care, then did part-time work till 59 years had a lower FI after 60 years than those who undertook full-time work until 59 years. Women who were largely family carers or non-employed throughout adulthood, had higher levels of frailty at 60 years but experienced a slower decline with age. Men who worked full-time but early exited at either 49 or 60 years had a higher FI at 65 years than those who worked full-time up to 65 years. Interaction between employment histories and age indicated that men in full-time work who experienced an early exit at 49 tended to report slower declines.ConclusionsFor women, experiencing distinct periods throughout the lifecourse of either work or family care may be advantageous for lessening frailty risk in later life. For men, leaving paid employment before 65 years seems to be beneficial for decelerating increases in frailty thereafter. Continuous full-time work until retirement age conferred no long-term health benefits.

Aim: To quantify variations in health-related behaviors (HRB) clustering of older adults in Western and Eastern countries.Methods: Using six aging cohorts from the USA, England, Europe, Japan, Korea and China, latent class analysis was applied to access the clustering of smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and social activity.Results: A total of 104 552 participants (55% women) aged ≥50 years in 2010 were included. Despite a different number of clusters identified, three consistent cluster profiles emerged: "Multiple-HRB" (ex-/never smoking, moderate drinking, frequent physical and social activity); "Inactives" (socially and physically inactive without other risk behaviors); and "(ex-)Smokers with Risk Behaviors". Sex and cohort variations were shown. For men in Western cohorts, "Multiple-HRB" was the predominant cluster, whereas their Asian counterparts were more likely to be members of the "Smokers with risk behavior" and "Inactives" clusters. Most women, particularly those in Asian cohorts, were never smokers and non-drinkers, and most of them belonged to the socially "Inactives" cluster. Conclusions:We provide a person-centered understanding of HRB clustering of older adults over selected countries by sex, informing tailored health promotion for the target population. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 930-937.

Healthy ageing has become a popular topic worldwide. So far, a consensus measure of healthy ageing has not been reached; and no studies have compared the magnitude of socio-economic inequality in healthy ageing outside Europe. This study aims to create a universal measure of healthy ageing and compare socio-economic inequalities in healthy ageing in the United States of America (USA), England, China and Japan. We included 10,305 American, 6,590 English, 5,930 Chinese and 1,935 Japanese participants for longitudinal analysis. A harmonised healthy ageing index (HAI) was developed to measure healthy ageing multi-dimensionally. Educational, income and wealth rank scores were derived accounting for the entire socio-economic distribution and the sample size of each category of socio-economic indicator. Associations between socio-economic rank scores and HAIs were assessed using multi-level modelling to calculate the Slope Indices of Inequality. Healthy ageing trajectories were predicted based on the full-adjusted age-cohort models. We found that education was a universally influential socio-economic predictor of healthy ageing. Moving from the highest to the lowest educational groups was associated with a 6.7 (5.2–8.2), 8.2 (6.0–10.4), 13.9 (11.4–16.3) and 6.1 per cent (3.9–8.2%) decrease in average HAI at 60 years in the USA, England, China and Japan, respectively. After 60 years, the educational inequality in healthy ageing kept increasing in the USA and China. The educational inequality in healthy ageing in China was also greater than any other socio-economic inequality in the four countries. Wealth was more influential in predicting healthy ageing inequality among American, English and Japanese participants, while income was more influential among Chinese participants. The socio-economic inequality in healthy ageing in Japan was relatively small. Chinese and American participants had worse healthy ageing profiles than Japanese and English participants.